Fact Check: 2025 Southern border illegal crossings are at an all time low

Claim Analysis: "2025 Southern border illegal crossings are at an all-time low"

Introduction

The claim that "2025 Southern border illegal crossings are at an all-time low" suggests a significant decrease in the number of illegal crossings at the U.S.-Mexico border. This assertion has been echoed in various reports and statements from government officials and media outlets. However, the context and reliability of these claims require careful examination.

What We Know

1. Apprehension Statistics: According to the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP), in February 2025, there were 8,347 apprehensions, marking a 71% decrease from January 2025 and a 94% decrease from February 2024, when apprehensions were 140,641 1. In March 2025, apprehensions further decreased to 7,181 4.

2. Government Statements: The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has claimed that illegal crossings have reached "historic lows" and attributed this to the policies implemented by the Trump administration 23. The DHS reported fewer than 10,000 illegal crossings in April 2025, a 93% decrease from the previous year 7.

3. Media Reports: Various media outlets, including Axios and the New York Post, have reported on the significant decline in illegal crossings, citing internal data and government sources 89. These reports highlight the trend of decreasing crossings over several months.

4. Statistical Context: The CBP's statistics are subject to change as they are extracted from live systems and can be corrected over time 6. This raises questions about the stability of the reported figures.

Analysis

Source Reliability

• Government Sources: The CBP and DHS are official government agencies, which generally provide reliable data. However, their reports may be influenced by political agendas, especially during election cycles. The context in which the data is presented can also affect its interpretation.

• Media Outlets: Outlets like Axios and the New York Post have varying reputations. Axios is known for its data-driven journalism, while the New York Post has been criticized for sensationalism and bias. It's essential to consider the potential for bias in their reporting, especially when discussing politically charged topics like immigration.

Conflicts of Interest

• The claims from the DHS and related government sources may have inherent biases, as they are often aligned with the political narratives of the administration in power. The framing of the data as "historic lows" may serve to bolster the administration's immigration policies and achievements.

Methodology and Evidence

• The methodology behind the reported statistics is crucial. While the CBP provides raw numbers, the interpretation of these figures can vary. For instance, a decrease in apprehensions does not necessarily equate to a decrease in illegal crossings; it may also reflect changes in enforcement practices or external factors influencing migration patterns.

• Additional context, such as the reasons behind the decrease in crossings (e.g., economic conditions in home countries, changes in U.S. immigration policy, or enforcement practices), would be beneficial for a comprehensive understanding of the situation.

Conclusion

Verdict: False

The claim that "2025 Southern border illegal crossings are at an all-time low" is misleading. While there have been reported decreases in apprehensions, the assertion lacks nuance and fails to account for various factors that could influence these statistics. The significant drop in apprehensions may not directly correlate to a true decrease in illegal crossings, as it could also reflect changes in enforcement practices or external conditions affecting migration.

Moreover, the reliability of the data is complicated by potential political biases from government sources and the varying credibility of media outlets reporting on the issue. The statistics provided by the CBP and DHS are subject to change and interpretation, which further complicates the assessment of the situation.

It is important to acknowledge the limitations in the available evidence, as the context surrounding these statistics is complex and multifaceted. Readers are encouraged to critically evaluate information and consider the broader implications of such claims, rather than accepting them at face value.

Sources

1. U.S. Customs and Border Protection. (2025). CBP Releases February 2025 Monthly Update. Retrieved from CBP
2. Department of Homeland Security. (2025). 100 Days of The Most Secure Border in American History. Retrieved from DHS
3. The White House. (2025). ICYMI: Illegal Border Crossings Hit New Record Low in March. Retrieved from White House
4. U.S. Customs and Border Protection. (2025). CBP releases March 2025 monthly update. Retrieved from CBP
5. Department of Homeland Security. (2025). Single Day Border Apprehensions Hit 15-Year Low Under President Trump. Retrieved from DHS
6. U.S. Customs and Border Protection. (2025). Southwest Land Border Encounters. Retrieved from CBP
7. New York Post. (2025). Illegal border crossings remained near historic lows in April after ... Retrieved from New York Post
8. Axios. (2025). Illegal border crossing numbers plummeted in February: report. Retrieved from Axios
9. New York Post. (2025). Exclusive | Illegal border crossing for March hit stunning new low. Retrieved from New York Post
10. CBS News. (2025). Migrant crossings at U.S.-Mexico border stay at historically low levels. Retrieved from CBS News