Fact Check: Southern border illegal crossings are at an all time low

Southern Border Illegal Crossings Are at an All-Time Low: A Fact-Check

Introduction

The claim that "Southern border illegal crossings are at an all-time low" has been circulating in various political and media circles. This assertion suggests a significant decrease in illegal crossings at the U.S.-Mexico border, which has been a contentious topic in U.S. immigration policy discussions. This article will explore the available data and perspectives surrounding this claim without rendering a final verdict.

What We Know

1. Recent Data Trends: According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP), there were 269,735 encounters at the Southwest border in September 2023, marking a record high for that month and indicating an overall increase in encounters for the fiscal year 2023 1.

2. Historical Context: A report from Pew Research Center indicates that illegal crossings reached a peak in December 2023, with 249,741 encounters recorded in a single month 10. However, subsequent months have shown a decline, with August 2024 reporting only 58,038 encounters, a 77% decrease from December 2023 10.

3. Government Claims: The White House has claimed that illegal border crossings hit a record low in March 2025, with a reported 96% decrease from the previous year's figures 2. This claim is based on internal government data, but the context of these statistics is crucial for understanding their implications.

4. Policy Impact: The decline in crossings has been attributed to various policy changes, including stricter enforcement measures and agreements with Mexico and other Central American countries 78. However, the long-term sustainability of these trends remains uncertain.

Analysis

Source Evaluation

• Government Sources: The CBP and the White House are primary sources for border crossing statistics. While they provide official data, their reports may be influenced by political agendas. For instance, the CBP's data is often used to support the administration's immigration policies, which raises questions about potential bias 12.

• Media Reports: Outlets like Axios and CBS News have reported on trends in border crossings, often citing government data. However, these reports can vary in their interpretation of the data. For example, Axios highlighted a significant drop in crossings but noted that this trend was influenced by policy changes initiated during the Trump administration 78.

• Research Organizations: The Pew Research Center is a reputable source for data analysis and has provided insights into the trends in border crossings. Their analysis of the data shows a complex picture, with fluctuations in crossing numbers that complicate the narrative of a simple decline 10.

Methodological Concerns

The methodologies used to collect and report border crossing data can vary significantly. For example, the CBP's encounters data includes apprehensions and expulsions under Title 42, which complicates the interpretation of "illegal crossings" 4. Furthermore, the timing of reports can affect perceptions; for instance, a claim of a low crossing rate in March 2025 may not account for seasonal variations typically seen in migration patterns.

Conflicting Claims

While some sources assert that illegal crossings are at an all-time low, others highlight that recent months have seen record high encounters. This discrepancy may stem from differing definitions of what constitutes an "illegal crossing" and the time frames being analyzed. For instance, the claim of record lows in March 2025 contrasts sharply with the record highs reported in late 2023 110.

Conclusion

Verdict: False

The claim that "Southern border illegal crossings are at an all-time low" is false based on the evidence reviewed. Data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection indicates that illegal crossings reached record highs in September 2023 and December 2023, contradicting the assertion of a significant decline. While there have been fluctuations in crossing numbers, the overall trend does not support the claim of an all-time low.

It is important to note that the context surrounding these statistics is crucial. Claims of record lows often rely on selective time frames or specific metrics that may not reflect the broader trends in illegal crossings. Additionally, the methodologies used to report these figures can vary, which complicates the interpretation of what constitutes an "illegal crossing."

There are limitations to the available evidence, particularly regarding the potential biases in government data and the influence of political agendas on the interpretation of border crossing statistics. As such, readers should approach claims about illegal crossings with a critical eye and consider the complexities involved in immigration data.

In conclusion, it is essential for readers to evaluate information critically and seek out multiple sources to gain a comprehensive understanding of the situation at the southern border.

Sources

1. House Committee on Homeland Security. "FACTSHEET: Final FY23 Numbers Show Worst Year at America's Borders Ever." Link
2. The White House. "ICYMI: Illegal Border Crossings Hit New Record Low in March." Link
3. Bureau of Transportation Statistics. "Border Crossing Data Annual Release: 2023 - 2024." Link
4. U.S. Customs and Border Protection. "Southwest Land Border Encounters." Link
5. U.S. Customs and Border Protection. "March numbers show most secure border in history." Link
6. U.S. Customs and Border Protection. "CBP Releases February 2025 Monthly Update." Link
7. Axios. "Illegal border crossing numbers plummeted in February: report." Link
8. CBS News. "Amid Trump crackdown, illegal border crossings plunge to levels not seen in decades." Link
9. CBS News. "Migrant crossings at U.S.-Mexico border stay at historically low levels." Link
10. Pew Research Center. "Sharp fall in migrant encounters at US-Mexico border in 2024." Link