Fact Check: Would Scottish independence fail

Fact Check: "Would Scottish independence fail"

What We Know

The claim regarding the potential failure of Scottish independence is rooted in ongoing public opinion polling and political discourse surrounding the issue. Since the 2014 Scottish independence referendum, nearly 300 polls have been conducted to gauge public sentiment on independence. These polls primarily ask the question, "Should Scotland be an Independent Country?" and reveal a divided opinion among the Scottish populace (Opinion polling on Scottish independence).

As of March 2025, a poll indicated that 54% of adults in Scotland would not support independence, suggesting a significant portion of the population is against the idea (Scottish independence poll 2025). Conversely, other polls indicate that nearly half of voters might support independence if a second referendum were held, reflecting a complex and fluctuating public sentiment (Scottish independence).

Political leaders also play a crucial role in shaping the narrative around independence. For instance, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has stated that he cannot envision another independence referendum occurring during his tenure, emphasizing the need to focus on economic issues rather than constitutional ones (Starmer says no independence referendum while he is PM). This stance has been met with criticism from Scottish National Party (SNP) representatives, who argue that the decision should be left to the Scottish people (Starmer says no independence referendum while he is PM).

Analysis

The evidence surrounding the claim that Scottish independence would fail is mixed and requires careful consideration of various factors. Polling data shows a consistent division in public opinion, with significant opposition to independence reflected in recent surveys (Scottish independence poll 2025). However, the same data also indicates that a substantial number of voters remain open to the idea of independence, particularly younger voters who may be more inclined to support it in the future (Time on Our Side: Is Scottish Independence More Likely in the ...).

The reliability of the sources varies. Polling data from reputable organizations, such as those adhering to the British Polling Council's standards, provides a solid foundation for understanding public sentiment (Opinion polling on Scottish independence). However, political statements, such as those from Starmer, may reflect party positions rather than public consensus, which can introduce bias into the interpretation of the data (Starmer says no independence referendum while he is PM).

Furthermore, the political landscape is continually evolving, with factors such as economic conditions, party leadership changes, and public service performance influencing voter sentiment. For instance, former Conservative minister Michael Gove suggested that a second referendum could be reconsidered if there is "overwhelming support" from the public, indicating that political dynamics could shift depending on future developments (Starmer says no independence referendum while he is PM).

Conclusion

The claim that Scottish independence would fail remains Unverified. While current polling suggests a majority opposition to independence, there is also a notable portion of the population that supports it, particularly among younger voters. The political context is fluid, and future developments could significantly alter public sentiment. Thus, without definitive evidence of failure or success, the claim cannot be conclusively validated or dismissed.

Sources

1. Opinion polling on Scottish independence
2. Starmer says no independence referendum while he is PM
3. Scottish independence poll 2025
4. Scottish independence
5. Time on Our Side: Is Scottish Independence More Likely in the ...
6. Scotland March 2025 snapshot
7. Ten Years Since the Referendum: When Will Scotland Get ...
8. Scotland referendum not a "priority" during time as...