Fact Check: "Without the Hispanic vote, Trump wouldn't have won the 2024 election."
What We Know
In the 2024 U.S. presidential election, Donald Trump made significant gains among various demographic groups, particularly Hispanic voters. According to a Pew Research Center survey, nearly half (48%) of Hispanic voters supported Trump, a notable increase from 36% in 2020 and 28% in 2016. This marked the highest level of support for a Republican candidate among Hispanic voters in exit polling since at least 1980. Additionally, Trump's support among Asian voters rose from 30% in 2020 to 40% in 2024, and his support among Black voters increased from 8% to 15% overall, with Black men showing a rise from 12% to 21% support (Washington Post).
The Pew survey, which included a sample of nearly 9,000 adult U.S. citizens, indicated that Trump retained 85% of his 2020 voters while only 11% opted out of voting and 3% switched to support Kamala Harris. In contrast, only 79% of Biden's 2020 voters turned out for Harris, with 15% not voting and 5% switching to Trump (Washington Post). These dynamics suggest that Trump's success was not solely dependent on Hispanic votes but also on retaining his base and attracting new voters.
Analysis
The claim that Trump would not have won without the Hispanic vote is partially true. While Trump's gains among Hispanic voters were significant, they were part of a broader trend of increased support from various demographic groups, including young voters and those who did not vote in the previous election (Axios). The Pew Research Center's findings indicate that Trump's overall strategy included retaining a high percentage of his previous supporters and appealing to new voters, which contributed to his victory (Washington Post).
However, the argument that the Hispanic vote was critical is supported by data showing that Trump’s support among this demographic was at an all-time high. The New York Magazine highlighted that Trump's electoral success was not merely a result of Hispanic support but also due to the lack of enthusiasm among Democratic voters, particularly those who supported Biden in 2020 but did not turn out for Harris in 2024. This suggests that while the Hispanic vote played a crucial role, it was not the sole factor in Trump's victory.
The reliability of the sources used in this analysis is generally high, as they come from established research institutions and reputable news organizations. The Pew Research Center is known for its rigorous methodology, and the findings have been corroborated by multiple outlets (Reuters, Axios). However, it is essential to recognize potential biases in political reporting, which can influence the interpretation of data.
Conclusion
The verdict on the claim "Without the Hispanic vote, Trump wouldn't have won the 2024 election" is Partially True. While Trump's gains among Hispanic voters were significant and contributed to his overall success, they were not the only factor. His ability to retain his 2020 base and attract new voters from various demographics played a crucial role in his victory. Therefore, while the Hispanic vote was important, it was part of a larger electoral strategy that included multiple demographic shifts.
