Fact Check: Without Hispanic votes, Trump wouldn't have won the 2024 election.

Fact Check: "Without Hispanic votes, Trump wouldn't have won the 2024 election."

What We Know

The claim that Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 election hinged on Hispanic votes is supported by recent studies, particularly a comprehensive analysis conducted by the Pew Research Center. According to their findings, Trump garnered nearly half of the Hispanic vote (48%) in 2024, a significant increase from 36% in 2020 and 28% in 2016 (source-2). This surge in support among Hispanic voters is noted as the highest for a Republican candidate in exit polling since at least 1980 (source-4).

Moreover, the Pew survey indicated that Trump's overall support among non-White voters, including Asian and Black voters, also increased, contributing to his electoral success (source-2). The analysis highlighted that Trump retained 85% of his 2020 supporters and attracted new voters, which played a crucial role in his victory (source-2).

Analysis

While the claim that Hispanic votes were pivotal to Trump's victory is substantiated by data showing increased support from this demographic, it is essential to consider the broader context of the election results. The Pew Research Center's analysis indicates that Trump's success was not solely reliant on Hispanic voters but also on his performance among other racial and ethnic groups, as well as his ability to retain a significant portion of his previous supporters (source-2).

The claim's validity is further complicated by the fact that while Trump did make gains among Hispanic voters, the overall voter turnout dynamics also played a crucial role. The analysis suggests that many Biden voters who did not turn out in 2024 were not necessarily swayed to vote for Trump but rather chose not to vote at all (source-2). This indicates that while Hispanic votes were significant, they were part of a larger coalition that included diverse voter groups, making it misleading to assert that Trump’s victory was solely dependent on Hispanic support.

Furthermore, the Pew study emphasizes that the electoral landscape shifted between 2020 and 2024, with many voters who did not participate in the previous election leaning towards Trump in 2024. This suggests that the dynamics of voter turnout and preference were more complex than a singular focus on Hispanic votes would imply (source-2).

Conclusion

The verdict on the claim "Without Hispanic votes, Trump wouldn't have won the 2024 election" is Partially True. While it is evident that Trump's increased support among Hispanic voters contributed significantly to his victory, it is not accurate to state that this demographic alone was responsible for his win. The election results were influenced by a combination of factors, including Trump's retention of previous supporters and gains among other racial and ethnic groups. Thus, while Hispanic votes were important, they were part of a broader coalition that led to Trump's success.

Fact Check: Without Hispanic votes, Trump wouldn't have won the 2024 election.