Fact Check: When is next pandemic?

Fact Check: "When is the next pandemic?"

What We Know

The question of when the next pandemic will occur is complex and currently unanswered. Experts emphasize that pandemics are not a matter of "if" but "when," suggesting that future outbreaks are inevitable. According to a recent CDC testimony, the agency has identified numerous emerging infectious disease threats, including avian influenza and Marburg virus, which could potentially lead to future pandemics. The testimony highlights the need for improved public health infrastructure and preparedness to respond to such threats.

The World Health Organization (WHO) has also updated its list of emerging pathogens that could lead to future pandemics, indicating a proactive approach to global health preparedness (Ukoaka et al.). This list reflects a shift in strategy, moving from a focus on specific pathogens to a broader family-focused approach, which aims to enhance readiness for both known and unknown threats.

Furthermore, researchers from the Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health have noted that the next pandemic could arise from various sources, including zoonotic diseases, and that global cooperation and preparedness are crucial (Harvard TH Chan).

Analysis

The available evidence suggests that while we cannot predict the exact timing or nature of the next pandemic, there is a consensus among health experts that it is a likely occurrence. The CDC's testimony underscores the importance of learning from past pandemics, particularly COVID-19, to strengthen public health responses and infrastructure (CDC).

The WHO's updated list of pathogens is a significant step toward enhancing global preparedness, as it aims to foster research and development for high-priority pathogens (Ukoaka et al.). However, the effectiveness of these measures will depend on international collaboration and resource allocation, as highlighted by various health experts (Boston University, World Economic Forum).

Despite these efforts, there remains uncertainty regarding specific pathogens that could trigger the next pandemic. Experts caution that predicting the next outbreak is inherently difficult due to the unpredictable nature of emerging diseases (Johns Hopkins University).

In summary, while there are frameworks and strategies in place to prepare for future pandemics, the exact timing and nature of the next pandemic remain uncertain. The sources reviewed provide a mix of insights into the ongoing efforts to enhance preparedness but do not offer a definitive answer to the question posed.

Conclusion

Needs Research: The claim regarding the timing of the next pandemic cannot be definitively answered at this time. While there is a consensus that future pandemics are likely, the specifics regarding when and what will trigger them remain uncertain. Ongoing research and preparedness efforts are critical, but more data and analysis are needed to provide a clearer picture.

Sources

1. Preparing for the Next Pandemic: Lessons Learned and the Path Forward
2. Updated WHO list of emerging pathogens for a potential future pandemic
3. The next pandemic: not if, but when
4. Are we ready for the next one? - JHU Hub
5. Are We Ready for the Next Pandemic? 5 Reasons to ... - Boston University
6. The next pandemic: What will it be?
7. What we need to be prepared for the next pandemic | World Economic Forum
8. 5 Infectious Diseases to Keep an Eye On in 2025 - U.S. News