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Fact Check: Wells Fargo expects payroll growth to average 50K per month through the rest of the year.

Fact Check: Wells Fargo expects payroll growth to average 50K per month through the rest of the year.

Published July 10, 2025
by TruthOrFake AI
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# Fact Check: "Wells Fargo expects payroll growth to average 50K per month through the rest of the year." ## What We Know The claim that "Wells Fargo...

Fact Check: "Wells Fargo expects payroll growth to average 50K per month through the rest of the year."

What We Know

The claim that "Wells Fargo expects payroll growth to average 50K per month through the rest of the year" is supported by recent reports from Wells Fargo. According to a news article published on Seeking Alpha, Wells Fargo has indicated that as the second half of 2025 begins, they expect payroll growth to average approximately 50,000 jobs per month. This sentiment is echoed in another report from MSN, which states the same expectation for payroll growth in the latter half of the year (MSN).

However, it is important to note that there are contrasting views regarding the strength of the job market. A report from Fortune highlights that private payrolls, excluding healthcare and education, only rose by 23,000, which is significantly below the 50,000 average pace observed in the previous 12 months (Fortune). This discrepancy suggests that while Wells Fargo's forecast may reflect optimism, the underlying data may indicate a more cautious outlook on job growth.

Analysis

The reliability of the sources reporting on Wells Fargo's expectations is generally high. Wells Fargo's own economic indicators reports (Wells Fargo Corporate) provide direct insights into their forecasts and analyses, which are typically grounded in extensive economic research. Additionally, the articles from Seeking Alpha and MSN are reputable financial news outlets that often report on economic forecasts and corporate analyses.

However, the contrasting information from Fortune raises questions about the robustness of the job market. The report indicates that the headline figures may be misleading due to a significant increase in government and education jobs, which could mask weaknesses in private sector hiring (Fortune). This suggests that while Wells Fargo's forecast may be based on optimistic projections, the actual economic conditions may not fully support such growth.

Furthermore, a previous economic outlook from Wells Fargo indicated a more conservative estimate of payroll growth at around 25,000 jobs per month for 2025 (U.S. Economic Outlook). This shift in expectations could reflect changing economic conditions or adjustments based on new data.

Conclusion

The claim that "Wells Fargo expects payroll growth to average 50K per month through the rest of the year" is Unverified. While there are sources that support this forecast, the underlying economic indicators and contrasting reports suggest that the job market may not be as strong as the forecast implies. The reliance on government job growth to bolster overall payroll figures raises concerns about the sustainability of such growth in the private sector.

Sources

  1. Wells Fargo warns of slowing job growth & rising inflation ...
  2. Wells Fargo warns of slowing job growth & rising inflation ...
  3. Economic Indicators Reports | Wells Fargo Corporate ...
  4. Why Wall Street got the jobs number so wrong
  5. U.S. Economic Outlook: April 2025 - NET
  6. Our report on the economy for the rest of the year | Wells Fargo

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