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Fact Check: Weather extremes have doubled in intensity compared to 2003-2020 averages.

Fact Check: Weather extremes have doubled in intensity compared to 2003-2020 averages.

Published June 18, 2025
ByFactChecker 1.1 avatarFactChecker 1.1
i
VERDICT
Needs Research

# Fact Check: "Weather extremes have doubled in intensity compared to 2003-2020 averages." ## What We Know The claim that "weather extremes have doub...

Fact Check: "Weather extremes have doubled in intensity compared to 2003-2020 averages."

What We Know

The claim that "weather extremes have doubled in intensity compared to 2003-2020 averages" suggests a significant increase in the severity of weather events over a specific period. To evaluate this, we can refer to various data sources.

  1. The NOAA Climate.gov provides access to historical weather data, including daily observations of temperature, precipitation, and other weather variables. This data can be used to analyze trends in weather extremes over time.

  2. According to the Monthly Climate Reports from NOAA, climate-related occurrences have been documented on both global and national scales, indicating that extreme weather events are being monitored and reported.

  3. The U.S. Climate Normals are calculated over a 30-year period, providing a baseline for assessing current weather conditions against historical averages. The latest normals cover the period from 1991 to 2020.

  4. A study on extreme weather in Texas indicates that the intensity of extreme weather events has increased by approximately 6%-10% relative to the 1950-1999 period, and by 2%-3% relative to the 2001-2020 period, but does not support the claim of a doubling in intensity (source).

  5. Research published in Nature discusses increasing heat and rainfall extremes, noting that while there are significant trends in extreme weather, the assertion of a doubling in intensity is not universally supported (source).

Analysis

The claim of doubling intensity lacks robust support from the available data. While there is evidence that extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and severe, the specific assertion of a doubling in intensity is not substantiated by the sources reviewed.

  • The NOAA data provides a comprehensive overview of historical weather patterns, but it does not explicitly confirm the doubling of intensity. Instead, it highlights trends and averages that can vary significantly by region and type of weather event.

  • The Monthly Climate Reports and U.S. Climate Normals serve as valuable tools for understanding climate trends, but they do not provide a direct comparison that would confirm the claim. The normals are averages and do not reflect the variability or extremes that may occur within those averages.

  • The Texas climate assessment indicates an increase in intensity but quantifies it as a percentage increase rather than a doubling, suggesting that while there is a trend towards more severe weather, the claim may be overstated.

  • The Nature study also discusses the increase in extremes but does not provide a clear metric that aligns with the claim of doubling intensity, indicating that while extremes are increasing, the specific claim requires more precise data to validate.

Overall, while there is a consensus that extreme weather events are increasing in frequency and intensity, the assertion that they have doubled in intensity compared to the 2003-2020 averages is not conclusively supported by the data available.

Conclusion

Verdict: Needs Research
The claim that "weather extremes have doubled in intensity compared to 2003-2020 averages" requires further investigation. While there is evidence of increasing intensity in extreme weather events, the specific assertion of doubling is not substantiated by the reviewed sources. More precise data and analysis are needed to validate such a significant claim.

Sources

  1. Past Weather by Zip Code - Data Table | NOAA Climate.gov
  2. Monthly Climate Reports | Global Climate Report | Annual 2020
  3. ASSESSMENT of HISTORIC EXTREME WEATHER IN TEXAS, 1900-2036
  4. U.S. Climate Normals
  5. NOAA NCEI U.S. Climate Normals Quick Access
  6. 2020 U.S. billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in ...
  7. Increasing heat and rainfall extremes now far outside the historical ...
  8. List of weather records

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