Fact Check: Voter fraud is statistically rare in U.S. elections.

Fact Check: "Voter fraud is statistically rare in U.S. elections."

What We Know

The claim that voter fraud is statistically rare in U.S. elections is supported by extensive research and data. According to a report by the Brookings Institution, analysis of election fraud cases over decades reveals that instances of fraud are exceedingly low. For example, in Pennsylvania, a review of 30 years of elections covering over 100 million votes found only 39 cases of voter fraud, which is a minuscule occurrence (Brookings). Similarly, in Arizona, the percentage of fraudulent votes over 25 years was calculated to be just 0.0000845%, with no election outcomes ever altered by such fraud (Brookings).

Moreover, a report from NPR emphasizes that research consistently shows voter fraud to be "infinitesimally rare" and not occurring at a scale that could affect election outcomes (NPR). Investigations into alleged voter fraud, particularly in states with heightened scrutiny, have yielded very few actual cases. For instance, in Ohio, only 75 potential cases were identified out of nearly 6 million ballots cast in the 2020 election (NPR).

Analysis

The evidence supporting the rarity of voter fraud in the U.S. is robust and comes from multiple credible sources. The Brookings Institution, a well-respected think tank, analyzed data from the Heritage Foundation, which is known for its conservative stance but has compiled a comprehensive database of voter fraud cases. This analysis shows that while the Heritage Foundation's database lists numerous instances of alleged fraud, a closer examination reveals that these cases are isolated and do not represent a widespread issue (Brookings).

NPR's report corroborates these findings by citing experts like Alice Clapman from the Brennan Center for Justice, who stated that courts and government commissions have consistently found that voter fraud is extremely rare (NPR). The report also highlights the discrepancy between the dramatic claims made by some officials and the actual findings from investigations, which often reveal minimal instances of fraud (NPR).

While the Heritage Foundation's data may initially suggest a larger problem, the context provided by independent analyses indicates that these instances do not significantly impact election outcomes. This critical assessment of the sources shows that while there may be isolated cases of voter fraud, they are not indicative of a systemic issue.

Conclusion

The claim that "voter fraud is statistically rare in U.S. elections" is True. The overwhelming evidence from credible sources demonstrates that while voter fraud does occur, it is exceedingly rare and does not affect election outcomes. Both independent and partisan analyses confirm that the instances of fraud are isolated and not reflective of a broader trend.