Fact Check: "Vedyakhin claims ruble is currently overvalued at 90-95 per dollar!"
What We Know
The claim that the Russian ruble is currently overvalued at 90-95 rubles per dollar originates from statements made by Alexander Vedyakhin, a senior official at Sberbank. He indicated that, according to their analysis, the ruble is indeed overvalued, suggesting that a more balanced exchange rate would be closer to this range (source-1). This sentiment is echoed by a Reuters poll, which found that most analysts agree the ruble is overvalued, projecting it to be at 95 rubles per dollar within a year (source-2).
Additionally, recent data shows that the ruble has gained strength, attributed to a significant rise in ruble-based export transactions, which accounted for 52.3% of all export payments in April 2025 (source-4). However, this increase is not necessarily indicative of global confidence in the ruble, as it is largely driven by the establishment of alternative payment systems amidst ongoing sanctions (source-4).
Analysis
The assertion that the ruble is overvalued is supported by multiple credible sources, including statements from Vedyakhin and the findings of financial analysts. Sberbank's warning about the economy cooling and the overvaluation of the ruble suggests a consensus among financial experts regarding the currency's current state (source-1, source-3).
However, the context in which this overvaluation is occurring is critical. The ruble's strength is partially a result of Russia's efforts to de-dollarize its economy and the establishment of new payment systems that may not reflect genuine economic stability or trust in the currency (source-4). The reliance on foreign currency holdings and the ongoing mismatch in currency inflows and outflows complicate the picture further, indicating that while the ruble may be currently strong, it is not necessarily sustainable or indicative of a healthy economy.
The sources used are generally reliable, with Reuters and The Moscow Times being established news organizations. However, the political context in which these statements are made should be considered, as economic analyses can be influenced by geopolitical factors.
Conclusion
Needs Research. While there is substantial evidence supporting the claim that the ruble is overvalued, the broader economic context complicates the assessment. The ruble's strength is influenced by factors such as sanctions, alternative payment systems, and the current geopolitical climate, which may not reflect a stable or sustainable economic situation. Further research is needed to fully understand the implications of this overvaluation and the potential future trajectory of the ruble.
