Fact Check: "US strikes may push Iran to develop nuclear weapons without international oversight."
What We Know
Recent military actions by the United States against Iran have raised significant concerns regarding the future of Iran's nuclear ambitions. On June 21, 2025, the U.S. military, in coordination with Israel, launched strikes on three key nuclear sites in Iran, namely Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan. President Trump described the operation as a "spectacular military success," aimed at crippling Iran's nuclear enrichment capabilities (NPR).
Prior to these strikes, U.S. intelligence had assessed that Iran had not made a definitive decision to pursue a nuclear weapon, largely due to a religious edict from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei prohibiting such development. However, experts suggest that this stance could change dramatically in light of the recent military actions. According to Rosemary Kelanic, director of the Middle East program at Defense Priorities, the U.S. strikes have likely increased Iran's motivation to pursue nuclear weapons as a means of deterrence against future attacks (New York Times).
Analysis
The evidence suggests that the U.S. strikes may indeed catalyze Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons. Analysts note that while the strikes could temporarily disrupt Iran's nuclear capabilities, they may also reinforce the Iranian leadership's resolve to develop a nuclear deterrent. This perspective is supported by intelligence assessments indicating that Iran's conventional defenses have been weakened, making nuclear weapons a more appealing option for ensuring national security (Reuters).
Moreover, the strikes have raised concerns about the potential for Iran to accelerate its nuclear program in the absence of international oversight. The U.S. military's actions have been characterized as a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict, which could further destabilize the region and lead to a nuclear arms race. The UN Secretary-General António Guterres has warned that such military actions could "increase the risk of a wider war" and undermine international diplomatic efforts (UN News).
While some sources claim that the strikes could set back Iran's nuclear program by several years, the long-term implications suggest that Iran may feel compelled to rebuild its capabilities more aggressively (Al Jazeera). The complexity of Iran's nuclear infrastructure, including undisclosed facilities, poses a significant challenge for any future oversight efforts.
Conclusion
The claim that U.S. strikes may push Iran to develop nuclear weapons without international oversight is True. The military actions have likely altered Iran's strategic calculus, increasing the likelihood that it will pursue nuclear weapons as a means of deterrence against perceived threats. The combination of military aggression and Iran's existing capabilities creates a precarious situation that could lead to further nuclear proliferation in the region.
Sources
- U.S. strikes 3 nuclear sites in Iran
- After U.S. Strikes, Iran May Be Determined to Build a Nuclear Weapon
- US strikes on Iran nuclear sites are real-life test of hard power's limits
- The Latest: US claims strikes on Iran's nuclear sites caused significant damage
- Officials assess damage from U.S. strikes; Trump raises concerns
- US strikes on Iran's nuclear sites 'marks perilous turn': Diplomacy
- How far will US strikes set back Iran's nuclear programme?
