Fact Check: "U.S. private payrolls fell by 33,000 jobs in June 2023."
What We Know
In June 2023, the private sector in the United States experienced a decline in payrolls, losing 33,000 jobs according to a report by ADP, a payroll processing firm. This marked the first decrease in private payrolls since March 2023. The report indicated that economists had anticipated an increase of 100,000 jobs for the month, highlighting a significant shortfall in expectations (NBC News). Additionally, the job growth figure for May was revised downward from 37,000 to just 29,000 jobs added (Reuters).
The job losses were primarily concentrated in service roles, particularly in professional and business services, and health and education sectors. The report noted a decline of 56,000 jobs in professional/business services and 52,000 in health and education (NBC News). Conversely, goods-producing sectors, such as manufacturing and mining, saw a net gain of 32,000 jobs (NBC News).
Analysis
The claim that U.S. private payrolls fell by 33,000 jobs in June 2023 is supported by multiple credible sources, including ADP's own report and analyses from major news outlets like NBC News and Reuters. The ADP report is often used as an early indicator of employment trends, although it has a mixed record in predicting the subsequent government jobs report (NBC News).
While the ADP report is generally reliable, it is important to note that its predictions can diverge from the official government statistics released later. For instance, previous ADP reports have shown significant discrepancies with the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) figures. This potential for variance suggests that while the ADP report provides valuable insights, it should be interpreted with caution (Reuters).
The context of the job losses is also significant; the decline in payrolls occurred amid broader economic concerns, with some analysts suggesting that the hesitancy to hire and reluctance to replace departing workers contributed to the downturn (NBC News).
Conclusion
The claim that U.S. private payrolls fell by 33,000 jobs in June 2023 is True. This conclusion is based on the corroborating evidence from multiple reputable sources, including the ADP report and analyses from major news organizations. The reported job loss reflects a significant deviation from economists' expectations and highlights ongoing challenges in the labor market.
