Fact Check: US intelligence assessments indicate that Iran is not actively pursuing a nuclear weapon and is up to three years away from being able to produce and deliver one to a target of its choosing.

Fact Check: "US intelligence assessments indicate that Iran is not actively pursuing a nuclear weapon and is up to three years away from being able to produce and deliver one to a target of its choosing."

What We Know

Recent assessments from U.S. intelligence agencies indicate that Iran is not currently developing nuclear weapons. According to a report by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), Iran has not made a decision to pursue nuclear weapons, and the Supreme Leader has not authorized a nuclear weapons program (source-1, source-5). The 2025 U.S. Intelligence Community Annual Threat Assessment also supports this claim, stating that while Iran has advanced its nuclear enrichment capabilities, it has not actively pursued the development of a nuclear weapon (source-6, source-7).

However, the assessments also suggest that Iran could potentially develop the capability to produce a nuclear weapon within a three-year timeframe if it decides to do so. This is based on its current uranium enrichment activities, which have reached levels of up to 60% purity, a significant step towards weapons-grade material (source-4, source-8).

Analysis

The claim that Iran is not actively pursuing a nuclear weapon is accurate according to multiple U.S. intelligence reports. The intelligence community has consistently assessed that Iran has not made a definitive move towards developing nuclear weapons, which aligns with the statements made by various intelligence officials (source-2).

However, the assertion that Iran is "up to three years away" from being able to produce and deliver a nuclear weapon is more nuanced. While the intelligence assessments indicate that Iran has the technical capability to enrich uranium to weapons-grade levels, the timeline is contingent on Iran's decision-making and political factors. The reports suggest that if Iran were to decide to pursue a nuclear weapon, it could achieve this capability within a three-year period, but this is not a certainty and depends on various geopolitical dynamics (source-3, source-5).

The reliability of these assessments comes from the established credibility of the U.S. intelligence community, which has a history of providing thorough analyses based on a combination of satellite imagery, intercepted communications, and other intelligence-gathering methods. However, it is important to note that intelligence assessments can be subject to interpretation and may evolve as new information becomes available.

Conclusion

The claim is Partially True. While U.S. intelligence assessments confirm that Iran is not currently pursuing a nuclear weapon, they also indicate that Iran could potentially develop such a capability within three years if it chooses to do so. This duality reflects the complexities of international relations and nuclear proliferation, where intentions and capabilities can diverge significantly.