Fact Check: US economy could shrink by 1.9% if Middle East war escalates.

Fact Check: "US economy could shrink by 1.9% if Middle East war escalates."

What We Know

The claim that the US economy could shrink by 1.9% in the event of an escalation of conflict in the Middle East is supported by various economic analyses. According to a report by EY, a significant escalation in the Middle East could lead to a global recession, with the global real GDP potentially reduced by 1.9% after a year. This would translate to a loss of approximately $2 trillion for the global economy, with the US economy specifically facing a real GDP loss of nearly $500 billion, or about 2.0% after a year (source-3).

Additionally, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has indicated that an escalation of the conflict could have significant economic ramifications, although the exact figures for the US economy were not detailed in their analysis (source-1). Economists from JPMorgan have also expressed concern about the potential for multiple economic shocks due to the conflict, emphasizing the risk of increased energy prices and inflation (source-4).

Analysis

The evidence supporting the claim primarily comes from economic forecasts that consider various scenarios of conflict escalation. The EY report outlines three potential scenarios: contained, moderate escalation, and significant escalation, with the latter leading to the most severe economic impacts. The prediction of a 1.9% shrinkage in the US economy is based on the assumption of a significant escalation scenario, which includes direct conflict involving the US and Iran, as well as disruptions in oil supply (source-3).

However, it is essential to note that these predictions are contingent on a variety of factors, including the duration and intensity of the conflict, the global response, and the resilience of the US economy. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has indicated that while energy prices may spike, the US economy is less dependent on foreign oil than it was in the past, suggesting that the long-term impact may not be as severe as historical precedents (source-4). This perspective introduces a level of uncertainty regarding the extent of the predicted economic shrinkage.

The sources used in this analysis are credible, with EY being a reputable consulting firm and the IMF being a leading international financial institution. However, predictions about economic impacts are inherently uncertain and can vary significantly based on evolving geopolitical situations.

Conclusion

The claim that the US economy could shrink by 1.9% if the Middle East war escalates is Partially True. While there are credible forecasts that suggest a significant economic impact could occur under certain escalation scenarios, the actual outcome would depend on numerous variables, including the nature and duration of the conflict, global economic conditions, and the US's ability to mitigate these impacts. Therefore, while the prediction is grounded in analysis, it remains speculative and subject to change.

Sources

1. Explainer: What Middle East conflict means for the global economy
2. U.S.、USA、America 有什么区别？ - 知乎
3. Middle East conflict: economic and geopolitical impact | EY - US
4. America's economy could face a war shock
5. US，USA和America有什么区别？_百度知道
6. What a potentially wider Israel-Hamas war could mean for the US economy
7. Israel and US have chosen war, unleashing fresh economic implications