Fact Check: "US could lose 18 million acres of farmland by 2040 due to sprawl."
What We Know
The claim that the US could lose 18 million acres of farmland by 2040 is supported by a report from the American Farmland Trust titled "Farms Under Threat 2040: Choosing an Abundant Future." This report indicates that from 2016 to 2040, the US is on track to convert over 18 million acres of farmland and ranchland into urban and low-density residential uses, which is equivalent to an area the size of South Carolina (American Farmland Trust). The report highlights that between 2001 and 2016, approximately 2,000 acres of farmland were lost daily, and if current trends continue, this loss could accelerate significantly (American Farmland Trust, Xie et al., 2023).
Furthermore, the report outlines various scenarios, including a "Runaway Sprawl" scenario where losses could exceed 24 million acres by 2040 if urban sprawl continues unchecked (American Farmland Trust, Ag Update). The urgency of this issue is underscored by the potential impacts on food security and environmental sustainability due to the ongoing threats from climate change and population growth (American Farmland Trust).
Analysis
The evidence supporting the claim comes from a credible source, the American Farmland Trust, which has conducted extensive research on farmland loss in the US. Their methodology includes high-resolution spatial analysis tools to track changes in land use, making their findings reliable and robust (American Farmland Trust). The report's projections are based on historical data and current trends, which lends further credibility to the assertion that 18 million acres of farmland could be lost by 2040.
However, it is important to consider the potential for variability in these projections. The report also presents alternative development scenarios, suggesting that if proactive measures are taken, such as adopting smarter land use planning and minimizing sprawl, it is possible to save up to 13.5 million acres of farmland (American Farmland Trust). This indicates that while the threat is significant, there are also avenues for mitigation.
In contrast, while other sources may report similar figures, the American Farmland Trust's findings are particularly comprehensive and focused on the implications for food security and environmental health, making them a primary source for this claim (Xie et al., 2023, Ag Update).
Conclusion
The claim that the US could lose 18 million acres of farmland by 2040 due to sprawl is True. This conclusion is based on credible research from the American Farmland Trust, which provides detailed projections and scenarios regarding farmland loss. The evidence indicates a significant threat to agricultural land in the US, emphasizing the need for strategic planning and intervention to safeguard these vital resources.
