Fact Check: UN projections predict a population decline starting in 2084, but it's actually 2055.

Fact Check: "UN projections predict a population decline starting in 2084, but it's actually 2055."

What We Know

The claim suggests that the United Nations (UN) projects a population decline beginning in 2055, contradicting the widely reported projection of 2084. According to the UN World Population Prospects 2024, the global population is expected to peak at approximately 10.3 billion in 2084 before declining to about 10.2 billion by 2100. This projection indicates that the population will not begin to decline until 2084, not 2055.

Additionally, a blog post from the Rural Migration Blog reiterates this projection, stating that the UN expects the world population to peak in 2084 and subsequently decline. The report emphasizes that the decline in population is linked to decreasing fertility rates and an aging population, which will lead to more deaths than births starting around that time.

Analysis

The sources cited provide a clear consensus on the timing of the projected population decline. The UN's projections are based on comprehensive demographic data and are updated every two years, making them a reliable source for understanding global population trends. The 2024 report specifically notes that the population will not start to decline until 2084, which is corroborated by multiple reputable sources, including the UN itself.

In contrast, the claim that a decline will begin in 2055 lacks supporting evidence from credible demographic studies or reports. The assertion appears to misinterpret or misrepresent the UN's findings. Furthermore, the reliability of the UN's projections is well-established in demographic research, making them a credible source for this information.

The only mention of a decline starting in 2055 comes from a less authoritative source, which does not provide substantial evidence or context to support this claim. Therefore, it is crucial to rely on the UN's official projections, which have been consistently validated by demographic experts.

Conclusion

Verdict: False. The claim that UN projections predict a population decline starting in 2055 is incorrect. The UN's official projections indicate that the global population will peak in 2084 and only then begin to decline. This timeline is supported by credible sources and reflects the current understanding of global demographic trends.

Sources

1. UN world population projections: 21st century ...
2. World Population: 8.2 to 10.3 billion - Rural Migration Blog
3. The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2024 - UNSD
4. World Population Prospects 2024: Summary of Results
5. SDG Indicators
6. The Birth-Rate Crisis Is Even Worse Than You've Heard
7. System of National Accounts
8. The Global Population Could Start Shrinking by 2084