Fact Check: "Trump's support among Hispanic voters surged to near parity at 51% in 2024."
What We Know
In the 2024 presidential election, Donald Trump garnered significant support among Hispanic voters, achieving approximately 48% of their votes, according to a comprehensive analysis by the Pew Research Center. This marked an increase from 36% in 2020 and 28% in 2016 (source-2, source-3). The Pew survey, which included nearly 9,000 respondents, indicated that Trump's support among Hispanic voters was the highest for a Republican candidate since at least 1980 (source-2).
While some exit polls suggested that Kamala Harris received about 51% of the Hispanic vote, the Pew data indicates that Trump was only a few percentage points behind, losing the demographic by a narrow margin of 3 points (source-4). This shift in support reflects broader changes in voting patterns among minority groups, with Trump also increasing his appeal among Black and Asian voters (source-2).
Analysis
The claim that Trump's support among Hispanic voters surged to "near parity at 51%" is misleading. While it is true that Trump's support rose significantly to 48%, he did not reach the 51% mark. The Pew Research Center's findings are based on a robust methodology that included a large sample size and validated voter data, making it a reliable source for understanding voting trends (source-3).
Moreover, the exit polls that suggested Harris received 51% of the Hispanic vote may not fully account for the nuances of voter turnout and preferences, as they often rely on smaller sample sizes and can be influenced by various factors, including timing and methodology (source-4).
The Washington Post's analysis highlights that Trump's gains among Hispanic voters were part of a broader trend where he also made significant inroads with other demographic groups, indicating a shift in the political landscape (source-2). However, the claim's framing as "near parity" at 51% does not accurately reflect the data, which shows Trump still trailing Harris among Hispanic voters.
Conclusion
The claim that "Trump's support among Hispanic voters surged to near parity at 51% in 2024" is Partially True. While Trump did experience a notable increase in support among Hispanic voters, reaching 48%, he did not achieve the 51% threshold suggested in the claim. The evidence indicates a significant shift in voting patterns, but the specific percentage cited is inaccurate.
Sources
- The Hispanic Vote in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Elections
- Trump shook Democrats' hold on non-White voters in 2024
- Voting patterns in the 2024 election - Pew Research Center
- Trump came close to winning Latino vote in '24 — Pew analysis - Axios
- New poll reveals full extent of Trump's gains with minority voters in 2024
