Fact Check: Trump's policies threaten to choke off critical worker supply for the US economy.

Published June 28, 2025

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VERDICT

Partially True

# Fact Check: "Trump's policies threaten to choke off critical worker supply for the US economy." ## What We Know The claim that "Trump's policies th...

Fact Check: "Trump's policies threaten to choke off critical worker supply for the US economy."

What We Know

The claim that "Trump's policies threaten to choke off critical worker supply for the US economy" suggests that the economic policies implemented during Donald Trump's presidency could negatively impact the availability of workers in the U.S. economy.

Job Growth and Wages: According to a report from the White House, Trump's "America First Economic Agenda" has led to significant job growth, with over 139,000 jobs added in May 2025 alone, all attributed to American-born workers (source-1). The report also claims that wages for American workers have been increasing, with real average hourly earnings up nearly 4% over the past year.
Tariff Policies: However, Trump's tariff policies have raised concerns about their long-term economic impact. A study from the Penn Wharton Budget Model indicates that Trump's tariffs could reduce long-run GDP by about 6% and wages by 5%, suggesting a potential negative effect on the overall economy and, by extension, the labor market (source-2). This could imply that while job numbers may appear robust, the economic environment created by tariffs could lead to a decrease in job quality and availability over time.
Worker Supply Concerns: The combination of tariffs and other restrictive trade policies may lead to reduced capital flow and higher prices for goods, which could ultimately choke off the supply of critical workers needed for various sectors in the economy (source-2).

Analysis

The evidence supporting the claim is mixed. On one hand, the White House report highlights job growth and wage increases, which could suggest a healthy labor market under Trump's policies (source-1). However, the economic implications of Trump's tariffs present a counter-narrative. The Penn Wharton Budget Model's findings indicate that while immediate job numbers may be up, the long-term effects of tariffs could lead to a contraction in the economy, which would adversely affect worker supply (source-2).

The reliability of the sources varies. The White House report is a government publication, which may present a favorable view of Trump's policies, potentially introducing bias. Conversely, the Penn Wharton Budget Model is an academic analysis that aims to provide a more neutral assessment of economic impacts, making it a credible source for evaluating the long-term effects of tariffs.

Conclusion

The claim that "Trump's policies threaten to choke off critical worker supply for the US economy" is Partially True. While there are indicators of job growth and wage increases, the potential long-term economic consequences of Trump's tariffs could indeed threaten the sustainability of this growth and the overall worker supply in the economy. The immediate benefits may be overshadowed by the negative impacts of restrictive trade policies, which could lead to a decrease in economic openness and worker availability.

Sources

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