Fact Check: Trump's bill will push up wholesale electricity prices by 74%.

Fact Check: "Trump's bill will push up wholesale electricity prices by 74%."

What We Know

The claim that "Trump's bill will push up wholesale electricity prices by 74%" is based on analyses of proposed changes to energy tax credits and their potential impact on electricity costs. According to a report from Quartz, experts predict that if Trump's proposed budget reconciliation bill passes, wholesale electricity prices could increase by 25% by 2030 and 74% by 2035 due to the repeal of Biden-era tax credits that incentivize renewable energy projects (source-2).

The Energy Innovation think tank also conducted a study indicating that states like Missouri and Kentucky could see annual household energy costs rise by $630 to $640 by 2035 if the bill passes, primarily due to a shift from renewable energy sources to fossil fuels (source-3). This shift is expected to occur as the repeal of tax credits for wind and solar energy projects would lead to increased reliance on natural gas and coal, which are generally more expensive (source-3).

Analysis

While the claim of a 74% increase in wholesale electricity prices is cited in some analyses, it is essential to consider the context and the variability of projections. The 74% figure appears to be a long-term projection for 2035, which may not reflect immediate impacts or the overall trend in energy pricing. The 25% increase by 2030 is a more moderate estimate that aligns with other analyses suggesting that the repeal of tax credits will lead to higher costs for consumers (source-2).

The reliability of the sources varies. The Energy Innovation analysis is backed by modeling data, while the Quartz report summarizes expert opinions and projections. However, both sources emphasize the potential for increased costs due to the shift away from renewable energy incentives. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) also supports the notion that natural gas prices are expected to rise, which would contribute to higher electricity costs (source-4).

Critically, while the 74% increase is a significant figure, it is essential to recognize that it is a projection for a future date, and various factors could influence actual outcomes, including market dynamics, technological advancements in energy production, and policy changes.

Conclusion

The claim that "Trump's bill will push up wholesale electricity prices by 74%" is False. While analyses indicate that there could be substantial increases in electricity costs due to the repeal of renewable energy tax credits, the 74% figure is a long-term projection for 2035 and not a definitive outcome. More immediate estimates suggest a 25% increase by 2030, which is more widely supported by current analyses. Therefore, while there is a consensus that energy costs are likely to rise, the specifics of the claim do not accurately reflect the nuanced projections available.

Fact Check: Trump's bill will push up wholesale electricity prices by 74%.