Fact Check: Trump's bill could boost the deficit by $3.3 trillion over a decade.

Published June 30, 2025

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VERDICT

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# Fact Check: "Trump's bill could boost the deficit by $3.3 trillion over a decade." ## What We Know The claim that "Trump's bill could boost the def...

Fact Check: "Trump's bill could boost the deficit by $3.3 trillion over a decade."

What We Know

The claim that "Trump's bill could boost the deficit by $3.3 trillion over a decade" is supported by a recent analysis from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO). According to the CBO, the Senate version of Trump's tax and spending bill is projected to increase the deficit by approximately $3.3 trillion from 2025 to 2034 (AP News, New York Times). This figure represents a significant increase compared to the $2.4 trillion projected for the House version of the bill (AP News).

The CBO's analysis also indicates that the bill would lead to an increase in the number of uninsured Americans, with an estimated 11.8 million more people lacking health coverage by 2034 if the bill is enacted (AP News, CBS News).

Analysis

The CBO is widely regarded as a reliable source for fiscal analysis, as it provides nonpartisan assessments of budgetary and economic issues. The credibility of the CBO's estimates is bolstered by its established methodology and transparency in reporting assumptions and calculations. However, some Republican lawmakers have disputed the CBO's findings, suggesting that the office's projections are overly pessimistic and do not account for potential economic growth resulting from the tax cuts (AP News, Reuters).

Critics of the bill, including many Democrats and independent economists, have labeled the Republican approach to budgeting as "magic math," arguing that it obscures the true costs of the proposed tax cuts (AP News). This skepticism is rooted in the fact that the CBO's traditional scoring methods indicate that the bill would violate the Senate's Byrd Rule, which prohibits legislation from increasing the deficit after a ten-year period (AP News).

In summary, while the CBO's estimate of a $3.3 trillion increase in the deficit is based on established fiscal analysis, the debate surrounding the bill's potential economic impact and the reliability of the CBO's projections reflects broader partisan divides regarding fiscal policy.

Conclusion

The claim that "Trump's bill could boost the deficit by $3.3 trillion over a decade" is True. The CBO's analysis provides a clear and credible basis for this assertion, despite ongoing debates about the assumptions underlying the projections and the potential economic impacts of the legislation.

Sources

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