Fact Check: "Trump's approval rating is above 50%"
What We Know
Recent polling data indicates that Donald Trump's approval rating has fluctuated significantly over time. According to a Marquette Law School Poll conducted in December 2024, 53% of adults nationwide approved of Trump's handling of his job during his presidency from 2017 to 2021. This marked an increase from 50% in October of the same year, suggesting a recent uptick in his retrospective approval ratings. However, it is important to note that this approval rating pertains to his past presidency rather than his current standing as a candidate.
In contrast, current approval ratings for Trump as a candidate are less favorable. A Siena College poll from October 2023 reported that Trump had a favorability rating of 36% and a job approval rating of 37% among New York voters, indicating a significant gap from the 50% threshold mentioned in the claim (Siena College).
Analysis
The claim that Trump's approval rating is above 50% can be misleading without context. The 53% approval rating reported by the Marquette Law School Poll reflects retrospective approval of Trump's past presidency, not his current approval as a candidate for the 2024 election. This distinction is crucial, as it does not indicate current public sentiment towards Trump as he campaigns for the presidency again.
Furthermore, the Siena College poll indicates that Trump's favorability among New York voters is considerably lower, at 36%, which is well below the 50% mark. This disparity highlights the difference between retrospective approval and current favorability ratings, which can vary significantly based on the context of the polling and the demographics surveyed.
In evaluating the reliability of these sources, the Marquette Law School Poll is generally regarded as credible, having a solid methodology and a history of accurate polling. The Siena College poll also has a reputation for thoroughness, although it focuses specifically on New York State, which may not represent national sentiment.
Conclusion
The claim that "Trump's approval rating is above 50%" is Partially True. While there is evidence of a 53% approval rating regarding his past presidency, current polling indicates that his approval rating as a candidate is significantly lower, particularly in key states like New York. Therefore, the claim lacks the necessary context to be considered wholly accurate.
