Fact Check: Trump's advantage among noncollege voters doubled to 14 points in 2024.

Fact Check: Trump's Advantage Among Noncollege Voters Doubled to 14 Points in 2024

What We Know

The claim that "Trump's advantage among noncollege voters doubled to 14 points in 2024" is supported by a recent study conducted by the Pew Research Center. According to their findings, Trump secured a 14-point advantage among voters without a four-year college degree, achieving 56% support compared to 42% for Kamala Harris. This marked a significant increase from his 2-point margin in 2020, effectively doubling his advantage among this demographic (Pew Research Center, Washington Post).

The Pew study highlights that Trump's support among noncollege voters was a crucial factor in his victory, reflecting a broader trend of increasing support from various demographic groups, including Hispanic and Black voters, who also showed notable shifts in their voting patterns (Washington Post, DNyuz).

Analysis

The evidence supporting the claim comes from a well-conducted survey by the Pew Research Center, which included a random sample of nearly 9,000 adult U.S. citizens. This sample was matched to official voter registration records, ensuring a reliable assessment of voting behavior (Pew Research Center). The study's methodology and the size of the sample lend credibility to its findings.

However, while the Pew study provides a clear picture of Trump's performance among noncollege voters, it is essential to consider the context of these numbers. The 14-point margin is indeed a significant increase, but it is also crucial to recognize that this demographic has historically leaned towards the Republican Party, particularly in rural and less urbanized areas. Thus, while the doubling of the margin is noteworthy, it may not indicate a complete shift in voter allegiance but rather an intensification of existing trends (Forbes, DNyuz).

Moreover, the Pew Research Center's analysis indicates that Trump's gains were not solely due to a shift in party loyalty but also reflected changes in voter turnout dynamics. Many voters who did not participate in the 2020 election turned out in 2024, and Trump's ability to attract these new voters contributed to his overall advantage (Washington Post, Pew Research Center).

Conclusion

Verdict: Needs Research

The claim that Trump's advantage among noncollege voters doubled to 14 points in 2024 is substantiated by credible research from the Pew Research Center. However, the broader implications of this statistic require further investigation. While the doubling of the margin is significant, it is essential to explore the underlying factors contributing to this change, including voter turnout dynamics and historical voting patterns. Therefore, while the claim is accurate, a deeper analysis of the context and potential implications is necessary.

Sources

1. Trump shook Democrats' hold on non-White voters in 2024, report finds
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