Fact Check: "Trump's 2020 supporters turned out at an astonishing 85% rate in 2024."
What We Know
A recent study by the Pew Research Center indicates that 85% of voters who supported Donald Trump in the 2020 election returned to vote for him again in 2024. This turnout rate is notably higher than that of former President Joe Biden's supporters, of whom only 79% showed up to vote for Kamala Harris in the 2024 election (New York Times). The report highlights that 15% of Biden's 2020 voters did not participate in the 2024 election, which significantly impacted the overall turnout dynamics (NPR).
Analysis
The claim that Trump's 2020 supporters turned out at an astonishing 85% rate in 2024 is substantiated by the Pew Research Center's findings, which are based on state voting records rather than exit polls. This method provides a more accurate representation of voter turnout (New York Times). The reliability of this source is bolstered by its reputation as a leading research organization that employs rigorous methodologies in its studies.
Furthermore, the analysis from Pew indicates that Trump's ability to maintain a high turnout among his 2020 supporters was a critical factor in his electoral success in 2024. The study also notes that while some voters did switch their support from Biden to Trump, the larger narrative was one of turnout rather than persuasion. This aligns with the findings from other sources, such as CNN, which corroborate the 85% turnout figure and emphasize the importance of turnout in Trump's victory (CNN).
Critically, the data also reveals a shift in demographics, with Trump gaining support among traditionally Democratic voter groups, particularly among Hispanic voters, which further underscores the significance of turnout in the election (NPR).
Conclusion
The claim that Trump's 2020 supporters turned out at an astonishing 85% rate in 2024 is True. The evidence from the Pew Research Center and corroborating reports from reputable news organizations confirm that this turnout rate was indeed significant and a key factor in Trump's electoral success. The analysis demonstrates that maintaining a high level of support from previous voters can be more impactful than attempting to convert new voters, particularly in a polarized political landscape.
Sources
- Trump Won by Turning Out Voters and Building a Diverse Coalition ...
- 2024 in politics, by the numbers : NPR
- Five charts show how Trump won the election | The Economist
- Voter turnout in the 2020 and 2024 elections: A detailed analysis | Pew ...
- New research shows Trump's 2024 support became more ethnically and ...
