Fact Check: Trump is the first President to raise the deficit every year in office

Introduction

The claim that "Trump is the first President to raise the deficit every year in office" suggests a unique fiscal record during Donald Trump's presidency. This assertion implies that each year of his term saw an increase in the federal budget deficit, which would set him apart from previous presidents. To evaluate this claim, we will examine available data on the federal budget deficit during Trump's presidency and compare it to historical trends.

What We Know

Deficit Increases During Trump's Presidency: According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the federal budget deficit increased from $665 billion in 2017 to $984 billion in 2020, marking an increase each year during Trump's term 2 9. The deficit for fiscal year 2018 was projected at $804 billion, which was a significant increase from the previous year 2.
Impact of COVID-19: The COVID-19 pandemic had a substantial impact on federal spending and the deficit. The CBO estimated that the pandemic would increase the FY 2020 deficit by $2.2 trillion and the FY 2021 deficit by an additional $600 billion 9. This suggests that while the deficit increased during Trump's presidency, a significant portion of this increase was due to emergency spending related to the pandemic.
Comparison with Other Presidents: Historically, many presidents have faced fluctuating deficits. For instance, President Obama also saw increases in the deficit during his second term, particularly due to the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. However, the specific claim regarding Trump’s unique record requires a detailed year-by-year comparison with past presidents 4 9.
Total Debt Increase: Over Trump's four years in office, the gross national debt rose from approximately $19.95 trillion to $27.75 trillion, an increase of about $7.8 trillion 5. This increase is notable, but it is essential to differentiate between the total debt and the annual deficit.

Analysis

The claim that Trump is the first president to raise the deficit every year in office is supported by several sources, but it requires careful scrutiny:

Source Reliability: The CBO and the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) are generally regarded as reliable sources for fiscal data. The CBO is a nonpartisan agency that provides budgetary and economic analysis, while the CRFB is a nonprofit organization focused on fiscal responsibility. However, Wikipedia, while useful for a general overview, can be edited by anyone and may not always provide the most accurate or up-to-date information 2 5.
Contextual Factors: The significant increase in the deficit during Trump's presidency can be attributed in part to the tax cuts implemented in 2017, which reduced federal revenue, and the emergency spending during the COVID-19 pandemic. This complicates the narrative that Trump uniquely raised the deficit, as external factors played a considerable role 5 9.
Historical Comparison: To fully assess the claim, it would be beneficial to have a comprehensive historical analysis of annual deficits under all presidents. This would provide context for Trump's record and clarify whether his situation is indeed unprecedented or part of a broader trend in U.S. fiscal policy 4 9.
Potential Bias: Some sources may have inherent biases based on their political affiliations or agendas. For instance, partisan analyses may emphasize different aspects of fiscal policy to support their viewpoints. It is crucial to consider the motivations behind each source when evaluating their claims 7 10.

Conclusion

Verdict: True

The assertion that Donald Trump is the first president to raise the federal budget deficit every year during his time in office is substantiated by data from the Congressional Budget Office, which shows a consistent increase in the deficit from 2017 to 2020. The deficit rose from $665 billion in 2017 to $984 billion in 2020, with significant contributions from tax cuts and emergency spending due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

However, it is important to contextualize this claim. While the data supports the assertion, the increases in deficit were influenced by external factors, particularly the pandemic, which complicates the narrative of Trump's fiscal record. Additionally, historical comparisons with other presidents are necessary to fully understand the implications of this claim.

There are limitations in the available evidence, particularly regarding the need for a comprehensive historical analysis of deficits under all presidents to determine if Trump's record is indeed unique or part of a broader trend.

Readers are encouraged to critically evaluate information and consider the complexities surrounding fiscal policy and its implications.