Fact Check: trump is highly likely to remain in office for a third term

Fact-Check: "Trump is highly likely to remain in office for a third term"

What We Know

The claim that Donald Trump is "highly likely to remain in office for a third term" is fundamentally flawed due to constitutional limitations. The 22nd Amendment of the United States Constitution explicitly states that "no person shall be elected to the office of the president more than twice." This amendment was ratified in 1951, primarily in response to Franklin D. Roosevelt's unprecedented four-term presidency.

Despite Trump's public musings about a potential third term, including remarks that there are "methods" to achieve this, legal experts overwhelmingly agree that the constitutional barriers are significant. For instance, William Baude, a professor at the University of Chicago Law School, stated, "There is no wiggle room" on the rule that a president can't be elected more than twice. Additionally, any attempt to change this would require a constitutional amendment, which necessitates a two-thirds majority in both the Senate and the House of Representatives, as well as ratification by three-fourths of state legislatures.

Trump's recent comments, including his promotion of "Trump 2028" merchandise, have stirred speculation among supporters about potential loopholes that could allow him to circumvent the two-term limit. However, these theories lack credible legal backing. For example, some supporters suggest that Trump could run as a vice-presidential candidate and then assume the presidency through succession, but legal scholars like Derek Muller argue that such interpretations are not supported by the Constitution.

Analysis

The assertion that Trump is "highly likely" to serve a third term is not supported by any credible evidence. The constitutional framework is clear, and the legal consensus among experts is that the 22nd Amendment effectively bars Trump from being elected again. While Trump has hinted at the possibility of a third term and has suggested that there are "methods" to achieve it, these statements appear to be more about garnering attention than reflecting any realistic political strategy.

Moreover, the sources discussing Trump's potential for a third term often highlight the impracticality of his ideas. For instance, NPR notes that while there are "plausible strategies" for attempting to circumvent the 22nd Amendment, they are largely speculative and untested in court. Legal experts have consistently pointed out that the language of the Constitution does not support the notion of a third term through unconventional means.

Additionally, Trump's own statements have been inconsistent. In a recent interview, he stated, "No, probably not," when asked if he would run for a third term, indicating a lack of serious intent to pursue this path (USA Today). This inconsistency further undermines the claim that he is "highly likely" to remain in office.

Conclusion

The claim that Donald Trump is "highly likely to remain in office for a third term" is False. The constitutional limitations imposed by the 22nd Amendment clearly prohibit any individual from being elected president more than twice. While Trump has made comments suggesting he might pursue a third term and has hinted at potential loopholes, these ideas lack legal foundation and are not supported by credible evidence. The overwhelming consensus among legal experts is that there are no viable methods for Trump to circumvent the two-term limit established by the Constitution.