Fact Check: "Trump gained support from 14% of 2020 nonvoters in 2024."
What We Know
The claim that "Trump gained support from 14% of 2020 nonvoters in 2024" can be traced back to various surveys and analyses conducted after the 2024 presidential election. According to a survey conducted by the Pew Research Center, Trump won the support of 52% of voters who did not participate in the 2020 election but voted in 2024, while Kamala Harris garnered 45% of that same group (source-2). This indicates that Trump had a significant appeal among 2020 nonvoters who chose to participate in the 2024 election.
Additionally, a separate analysis from the Marquette Law School Poll indicated that among those who expressed mixed feelings about Trump, 55% voted for him in 2024, which suggests a shift in support from nonvoters who had previously abstained (source-1).
Analysis
The claim that Trump gained support from 14% of 2020 nonvoters appears to be an underestimation based on the available data. The Pew Research Center's findings show that Trump received 52% of the votes from individuals who did not vote in 2020 but participated in 2024, which is a much higher percentage than the claim suggests (source-2). This indicates that Trump's appeal to nonvoters was substantial, contradicting the claim's lower figure.
Moreover, the Marquette Law School Poll also supports the notion that Trump was able to mobilize nonvoters effectively, particularly those with mixed feelings about him, who previously may not have participated in elections. The data suggests that Trump's ability to engage these voters was a key factor in his electoral success (source-1).
However, it is important to note that the claim may stem from a misinterpretation or simplification of the data regarding nonvoter support. The specific figure of 14% does not align with the broader trends observed in the surveys, indicating a potential discrepancy in the claim's accuracy.
Conclusion
Verdict: Partially True
The claim that "Trump gained support from 14% of 2020 nonvoters in 2024" is partially true in that it reflects a shift in support from nonvoters to Trump. However, the actual percentage of support from nonvoters who participated in the 2024 election is significantly higher, at 52%, according to the Pew Research Center. Therefore, while there is a basis for the claim regarding Trump's appeal to nonvoters, the specific figure cited is misleading.
