Fact Check: Trump Claims Russia Wouldn't Have Invaded Ukraine If Not Expelled from G8
What We Know
Former President Donald Trump recently claimed that Russia would not have invaded Ukraine if it had not been expelled from the G8 in 2014. This assertion was made during a press conference at the G7 summit in Canada, where Trump stated, “I would say that was a mistake, because I think you wouldn’t have a war right now” (source). He attributed the decision to expel Russia to former President Barack Obama and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, although it was actually made under Prime Minister Stephen Harper's administration (source, source).
Trump's comments reflect a long-standing position he has held, advocating for Russia's inclusion in international discussions to prevent conflicts. He has previously suggested that having Russia at the negotiating table could help resolve global issues, including the war in Ukraine (source, source).
Analysis
The claim that Russia would not have invaded Ukraine if it had remained in the G8 is contentious and relies on a speculative interpretation of international relations. Trump's assertion implies that Russia's exclusion from the G8 created a rift that led to its aggressive actions in Ukraine. However, this perspective overlooks the broader context of Russia's foreign policy and historical actions leading up to the invasion.
Critics of Trump's claim, including former national security adviser John Bolton, argue that Trump's understanding of the situation is flawed. Bolton noted that Russia was expelled from the G8 due to its invasion of Crimea, which was a direct violation of international norms (source). This suggests that Russia's aggressive behavior was not a consequence of its exclusion from the G8 but rather the reason for it.
Furthermore, Trump's framing of the issue may reflect a bias towards rehabilitating relations with Russia, which has been a consistent theme throughout his political career. His comments have often been met with skepticism from allies who view Russia's actions as a threat to global stability (source).
While it is true that diplomatic engagement can sometimes prevent conflicts, the assertion that Russia's presence in the G8 would have definitively prevented the invasion of Ukraine lacks concrete evidence. The complexities of international relations and the motivations behind state actions cannot be reduced to a single factor, such as membership in a diplomatic group.
Conclusion
The claim that Russia would not have invaded Ukraine if it had not been expelled from the G8 is True in the sense that it reflects Trump's stated belief. However, it is essential to recognize that this belief is based on a speculative interpretation of international relations and does not consider the broader context of Russia's actions and motivations. The expulsion was a response to aggression, not a catalyst for it, making the claim more about Trump's perspective than an established fact.
