Fact Check: Trump Claims Massie's Votes Could Lead to a 68% Tax Increase
What We Know
President Donald Trump has asserted that if Rep. Thomas Massie votes against the Republican budget bill, known as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, it would result in a "68% tax increase" for Americans. Trump has made this claim multiple times, stating that the failure of the bill would lead to significant tax hikes, including a specific mention of a 68% increase in taxes (FactCheck.org).
The context of this claim revolves around the expiration of provisions from the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). If these provisions are not extended, individual income tax rates would revert to their 2017 levels, which could affect a substantial number of taxpayers. According to the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, if the TCJA provisions expire, taxes would increase by an average of about 7.5% for Americans (FactCheck.org).
Trump's figure of 68% appears to be derived from a statement made by Rep. Andy Barr, who indicated that 68% of Americans would see a tax increase if the bill fails (FactCheck.org). However, this statistic refers to the percentage of households that would pay more taxes, not an average tax increase of 68%.
Analysis
Trump's assertion that Massie's votes could lead to a 68% tax increase is misleading. While it is true that a significant percentage of Americans could see a tax increase if the TCJA provisions are allowed to expire, the average increase is estimated to be around 7.5% (FactCheck.org).
The claim's reliability is further complicated by the lack of clarity in Trump's statements. He has repeatedly used the 68% figure without providing a clear source or context, which raises questions about the accuracy of his interpretation. The Tax Policy Center estimates that 64.2% of households would pay more taxes in 2026 if the law expires, which aligns with Barr's framing but does not support Trump's claim of a 68% average tax increase (FactCheck.org).
Moreover, Trump's comments seem to conflate the percentage of taxpayers affected by potential tax increases with the magnitude of those increases, which can lead to misunderstandings among the public. The assertion that "non-passage means a 68% Tax Increase for everybody" is not supported by any credible analysis (USA TODAY).
Conclusion
The claim that Massie's votes could lead to a 68% tax increase is Partially True. While there is a legitimate concern that a significant percentage of Americans could face tax increases if the TCJA provisions expire, the average increase is estimated to be around 7.5%, not 68%. Trump's use of the 68% figure lacks context and clarity, making it misleading in terms of its implications for average tax increases.
