Fact Check: Trump Claims Iran's Nuclear Program Was Set Back Years by US Strikes
What We Know
On June 21, 2025, President Donald Trump announced that U.S. military strikes targeting three Iranian nuclear sites, including the heavily fortified Fordow facility, had been a "spectacular military success" that "completely and totally obliterated" Iran's nuclear enrichment capabilities (NPR). The strikes were conducted in coordination with Israeli forces and aimed to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons. Following the strikes, various sources reported that while the attacks had inflicted significant damage, the extent of the setback to Iran's nuclear program remained uncertain.
Pentagon officials indicated that the strikes had indeed damaged Iran's nuclear capabilities, but they could not confirm the complete destruction of the facilities (NPR). Analysts suggested that the strikes might have set back Iran's nuclear program by two to three years, but emphasized that this setback was not permanent and that Iran could potentially recover its capabilities (Washington Post, Nature).
Analysis
The claim that U.S. strikes set back Iran's nuclear program by years is supported by some evidence but lacks definitive confirmation. While President Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth asserted that the strikes had "obliterated" Iran's nuclear ambitions, independent assessments have been more cautious. For instance, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has stated that it is not in a position to assess the underground damage at Fordow, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding the actual impact of the strikes (Brookings).
Furthermore, while some experts agree that the strikes likely set back Iran's nuclear program, they caution that the threat is far from eliminated. Reports indicate that Iran has accumulated a large stockpile of enriched uranium and has been steadily reducing its compliance with the 2015 nuclear deal since the U.S. withdrew from it (Brookings, Reuters). This suggests that while the strikes may have temporarily hindered Iran's progress, the long-term implications remain ambiguous.
The reliability of the sources varies; while major news outlets like NPR and the Washington Post provide well-researched information, the claims made by Trump and his administration may be influenced by political motivations, potentially skewing the portrayal of the strikes' effectiveness.
Conclusion
The claim that U.S. strikes set back Iran's nuclear program by years is Partially True. While there is evidence suggesting that the strikes caused significant damage and could delay Iran's nuclear ambitions, the extent of this setback is uncertain and may not be permanent. The situation remains fluid, and Iran's ability to recover its nuclear capabilities is a critical factor that complicates the narrative of a decisive victory.
Sources
- The US attacks Iran: Three questions for the day after
- U.S. strikes 3 nuclear sites in Iran : NPR
- U.S. scrambles to determine impact of strikes on Iran's nuclear program
- What we know about US strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites
- Trump Claims Success After Bombing Key Iran Nuclear Sites
- Did the US wipe out Iran's nuclear programme? What analysts say
- Strikes on Iran mark Trump's biggest, and riskiest, foreign policy gamble
- Timeline of tensions between Iran and US over Tehran's nuclear program
