Fact Check: Trump claims Iran is 'very close' to having a nuclear weapon
What We Know
Former President Donald Trump has repeatedly stated that Iran is "very close" to obtaining a nuclear weapon. This assertion aligns with his long-standing position that Iran must not be allowed to acquire nuclear capabilities. For instance, in a statement made on October 1, 2024, Trump emphasized, “They can’t have a nuclear weapon — and now they’re very close to having one and it’s very dangerous for the world” (source-1).
Despite these claims, U.S. intelligence assessments have contradicted Trump's assertions. In March 2025, Tulsi Gabbard, the Director of National Intelligence, testified that the intelligence community “continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon” and that Iran's Supreme Leader had not reauthorized the nuclear weapons program that was suspended in 2003 (source-2).
However, Trump dismissed these intelligence findings, stating, “I don’t care what she said,” and maintained that Iran was indeed “very close” to developing a nuclear bomb (source-2).
Analysis
Trump's claim that Iran is "very close" to having a nuclear weapon is rooted in his broader narrative that emphasizes the threat posed by Iran's nuclear ambitions. His statements are consistent with his historical rhetoric, where he has consistently warned against Iran's nuclear capabilities (source-1).
On the other hand, the U.S. intelligence community, which includes various agencies with expertise in nuclear proliferation, has assessed that Iran is not actively working towards building a nuclear weapon. This discrepancy raises questions about the reliability of Trump's claims versus the intelligence assessments. The intelligence community's position is based on extensive monitoring and analysis of Iran's nuclear program, which suggests that while Iran has enriched uranium, it has not taken definitive steps towards weaponization (source-2).
The credibility of Trump's statements can also be scrutinized in light of his history of conflicting with intelligence officials. His dismissal of intelligence assessments as "wrong" indicates a pattern of prioritizing his narrative over established intelligence (source-4).
Conclusion
The claim that Iran is "very close" to having a nuclear weapon is True in the context of Trump's consistent warnings about the potential threat posed by Iran. However, it is essential to note that this claim contradicts the assessments made by U.S. intelligence agencies, which state that Iran is not currently building a nuclear weapon. Trump's statements reflect his political stance and rhetoric rather than the consensus view of intelligence experts. Therefore, while the claim is true as per Trump's assertions, it is misleading when considering the broader context of intelligence evaluations.
