Fact Check: Toronto's housing collapse will cost governments 6.6 billion annually.

Fact Check: "Toronto's housing collapse will cost governments 6.6 billion annually."

What We Know

The claim that Toronto's housing collapse will cost governments approximately $6.6 billion annually is supported by recent analyses of the housing market in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). A report from the Altus Group indicates that the significant decline in housing starts and new home sales could lead to a fiscal impact of around $6.5 billion per year across all levels of government due to reduced tax revenues. This decline is attributed to a broader trend of decreasing housing construction, with new single-family home sales dropping by 73% compared to ten-year averages and new condominium sales plummeting by 90% in early 2025 (source-2).

Moreover, the Ontario Financial Accountability Office has reported that housing starts in the province have reached lows not seen since the 2008-09 financial crisis, further emphasizing the severity of the situation (source-4). The implications of this collapse extend beyond immediate financial losses, as it threatens to exacerbate unemployment in the construction sector, which has already seen a significant reduction in jobs (source-2).

Analysis

The evidence supporting the claim is robust, primarily stemming from the Altus Group report, which provides a concrete financial estimate of the impact of the housing market collapse. The projected loss of $6.5 billion aligns closely with the claim of $6.6 billion, indicating a high level of accuracy in the assertion. The report's methodology includes a scenario analysis that factors in the potential decline in housing starts and sales, which is critical for understanding the broader economic implications (source-2).

However, while the Altus Group is a reputable source in real estate analysis, it is essential to consider the potential biases inherent in reports that may be influenced by industry stakeholders. The urgency of the situation has also been highlighted by various media outlets, such as CBC and Financial Post, which corroborate the declining trends in housing starts and the associated economic repercussions. These sources provide additional context and support for the claim, reinforcing the notion that the housing market's downturn is a significant concern for government finances.

Despite the strong evidence, it is crucial to approach the claim with a critical lens. The estimate of $6.6 billion is a projection based on current trends and assumptions about future market conditions. If the housing market stabilizes or recovers, the actual fiscal impact could differ. Nevertheless, the current trajectory suggests that the claim is grounded in credible analyses and reflects the ongoing challenges faced by the Toronto housing market.

Conclusion

Verdict: True
The claim that Toronto's housing collapse will cost governments $6.6 billion annually is substantiated by credible reports and analyses indicating a significant decline in housing starts and sales, leading to substantial losses in tax revenue. The alignment of various sources and the detailed financial projections provided by the Altus Group reinforce the accuracy of this assertion.

Fact Check: Toronto's housing collapse will cost governments 6.6 billion annually.