Fact Check: There will be a recession in the United States in the year of 2025-2026

Fact Check: There will be a recession in the United States in the year of 2025-2026

Published April 6, 2025
?
VERDICT
Unverified

# The Claim: "There will be a recession in the United States in the year of 2025-2026" ## Introduction The assertion that the United States will expe...

The Claim: "There will be a recession in the United States in the year of 2025-2026"

Introduction

The assertion that the United States will experience a recession in 2025-2026 has been circulating among economists and financial analysts. This claim is based on various economic forecasts and analyses that predict potential downturns in the economy during that period. However, the reliability of these predictions varies significantly, and the economic landscape can change rapidly based on numerous factors.

What We Know

  1. CBO's Economic Projections: The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) provides economic forecasts that include projections for GDP growth and unemployment rates. Their report indicates that while there may be fluctuations in the economy, it does not explicitly predict a recession in 2025-2026, suggesting a stable growth trajectory instead 1.

  2. University of Michigan's Economic Outlook: A report from the University of Michigan's Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics (RSQE) forecasts a ramp-up in economic growth in 2026, with an annualized growth rate of 2.5% by the end of that year. This report implies a positive economic outlook rather than a recession 2.

  3. UCLA Anderson Forecast: According to the UCLA Anderson School of Management, as of early 2025, there are no signs indicating an imminent recession. The labor market remains strong, with low unemployment rates and job growth, suggesting a resilient economy 3.

  4. Goldman Sachs Predictions: Goldman Sachs has recently raised the probability of a U.S. recession to 35%, citing concerns over economic conditions and potential Federal Reserve actions. This prediction reflects a cautious outlook but does not confirm a recession will occur 56.

  5. J.P. Morgan's Assessment: J.P. Morgan's chief economist has indicated a 40% chance of a recession occurring, emphasizing risks related to governance and economic policies. This assessment highlights significant uncertainties in the economic environment 79.

Analysis

The predictions regarding a potential recession in 2025-2026 come from a mix of reputable sources, but they vary widely in their conclusions.

  • CBO and University of Michigan Reports: Both the CBO and the University of Michigan provide forecasts based on comprehensive economic models and data. Their methodologies are generally reliable, as they are grounded in extensive research and historical data. However, they may not account for unforeseen events that could impact the economy, such as geopolitical tensions or natural disasters.

  • Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan: These financial institutions are well-respected in the economic community, but their predictions can be influenced by market sentiments and investor behavior. Goldman Sachs' increase in recession probability reflects a shift in economic conditions but is still speculative. J.P. Morgan's assessment also underscores the inherent uncertainty in economic forecasting, especially when external factors are at play.

  • Potential Biases: While the CBO and academic institutions like the University of Michigan strive for objectivity, financial institutions may have vested interests in their predictions, particularly if they align with their investment strategies or market positions. This could introduce bias into their assessments.

  • Methodological Concerns: The methodologies used in these forecasts can vary significantly. For example, the CBO relies on legislative and policy frameworks, while financial institutions may focus more on market trends and investor behavior. Understanding these differences is crucial for interpreting their predictions accurately.

Conclusion

Verdict: Unverified

The claim that a recession will occur in the United States in 2025-2026 remains unverified due to the mixed evidence from various economic forecasts. While institutions like the CBO and the University of Michigan suggest a stable or growing economy, other sources, such as Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan, indicate a notable probability of recession, albeit without definitive predictions. This divergence in forecasts highlights the uncertainty inherent in economic predictions, which can be influenced by numerous unpredictable factors.

It is important to recognize that while some forecasts lean towards optimism, others reflect caution. The limitations of these predictions stem from their reliance on current data and methodologies, which may not fully account for future developments or external shocks to the economy. As such, readers should approach these claims with skepticism and remain aware of the fluid nature of economic conditions.

In light of this uncertainty, it is advisable for readers to critically evaluate information regarding economic forecasts and consider multiple perspectives before drawing conclusions about future economic conditions.

Sources

  1. Congressional Budget Office. "CBO's Current View of the Economy From 2025 to 2027." CBO
  2. University of Michigan. "The U.S. Economic Outlook for 2025-2026." U-M LSA
  3. UCLA Anderson School of Management. "Recession Watch 2025." UCLA Anderson
  4. Congressional Budget Office. "The Long-Term Budget Outlook: 2025 to 2055." CBO
  5. Reuters. "Goldman raises odds of US recession to 35%." Reuters
  6. NPR. "Goldman Sachs raises probability of a U.S. recession to 35%." NPR
  7. Reuters. "J.P. Morgan economist sees 40% US recession chance." Reuters
  8. BBC. "Is the US headed into a recession under Trump?" BBC
  9. J.P. Morgan. "The probability of a recession now stands at 40%." J.P. Morgan
  10. CNN. "Recession odds are rising as Trump's trade war escalates." CNN

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Fact Check: Transcript
00:00
I cannot believe that Trump is
cutting Medicaid. Actually,
what I meant to say is that I
can't believe he's not cutting
more of it because medicaid is
a money laundering scheme for
your government.
Congratulations all you
bleeding heart democrats.
Instead of raging against the
machine, you're bending over
for it. Medicaid is jointly run
by the states and the feds and
for every one dollar that your
state allocates to the program,
the Feds turn around and match
that at a level of one 00
percent so one dollar up to
nine dollars. And this money
comes from taxpayers in other
00:34
states. Your money has a 900%
return rate at someone else's
expense. Why wouldn't you
expand the program? Thanks
Obama. That's exactly how we
wound up with way too many
Medicaid recipients in the
first place. Like everything
related to healthcare the
providers are in bed with the
government on this one too
because the government can tax
the providers. 1. Use that
dollar to collect the up to
nine dollars in federal funds
and to reimburse the provider
their original dollar. What?
Robbing the taxpayer to pad the
funding pool leading to
increase reimbursements for
01:06
Medicaid for the providers.
Yeah, if I'm a doctor or a
health care facility, I'm
saying sign me up to that. Yes,
the medical industrial complex
totally has your best interest
in mind so go ahead and swallow
up those vaccines like a good
little comrade. Age me harder
daddy. And speaking of
comrades, do you know how many
people in this country receive
Medicaid that shouldn't? Before
you start screaming, everyone
should get free health care.
Not the argument here. We do
not have universal health care
in the United States. It
doesn't work and since we don't
have it, that means someone is
paying for it and guess what?
There are lower-income families
01:37
who don't qualify for the
benefits but they're taxpayers
and they're being burdened by
this. Back to the point which
is that the system is insanely
abused. I used to do child
support referee work for years
and you would v
Partially True
🎯 Similar

Fact Check: Transcript 00:00 I cannot believe that Trump is cutting Medicaid. Actually, what I meant to say is that I can't believe he's not cutting more of it because medicaid is a money laundering scheme for your government. Congratulations all you bleeding heart democrats. Instead of raging against the machine, you're bending over for it. Medicaid is jointly run by the states and the feds and for every one dollar that your state allocates to the program, the Feds turn around and match that at a level of one 00 percent so one dollar up to nine dollars. And this money comes from taxpayers in other 00:34 states. Your money has a 900% return rate at someone else's expense. Why wouldn't you expand the program? Thanks Obama. That's exactly how we wound up with way too many Medicaid recipients in the first place. Like everything related to healthcare the providers are in bed with the government on this one too because the government can tax the providers. 1. Use that dollar to collect the up to nine dollars in federal funds and to reimburse the provider their original dollar. What? Robbing the taxpayer to pad the funding pool leading to increase reimbursements for 01:06 Medicaid for the providers. Yeah, if I'm a doctor or a health care facility, I'm saying sign me up to that. Yes, the medical industrial complex totally has your best interest in mind so go ahead and swallow up those vaccines like a good little comrade. Age me harder daddy. And speaking of comrades, do you know how many people in this country receive Medicaid that shouldn't? Before you start screaming, everyone should get free health care. Not the argument here. We do not have universal health care in the United States. It doesn't work and since we don't have it, that means someone is paying for it and guess what? There are lower-income families 01:37 who don't qualify for the benefits but they're taxpayers and they're being burdened by this. Back to the point which is that the system is insanely abused. I used to do child support referee work for years and you would v

Detailed fact-check analysis of: Transcript 00:00 I cannot believe that Trump is cutting Medicaid. Actually, what I meant to say is that I can't believe he's not cutting more of it because medicaid is a money laundering scheme for your government. Congratulations all you bleeding heart democrats. Instead of raging against the machine, you're bending over for it. Medicaid is jointly run by the states and the feds and for every one dollar that your state allocates to the program, the Feds turn around and match that at a level of one 00 percent so one dollar up to nine dollars. And this money comes from taxpayers in other 00:34 states. Your money has a 900% return rate at someone else's expense. Why wouldn't you expand the program? Thanks Obama. That's exactly how we wound up with way too many Medicaid recipients in the first place. Like everything related to healthcare the providers are in bed with the government on this one too because the government can tax the providers. 1. Use that dollar to collect the up to nine dollars in federal funds and to reimburse the provider their original dollar. What? Robbing the taxpayer to pad the funding pool leading to increase reimbursements for 01:06 Medicaid for the providers. Yeah, if I'm a doctor or a health care facility, I'm saying sign me up to that. Yes, the medical industrial complex totally has your best interest in mind so go ahead and swallow up those vaccines like a good little comrade. Age me harder daddy. And speaking of comrades, do you know how many people in this country receive Medicaid that shouldn't? Before you start screaming, everyone should get free health care. Not the argument here. We do not have universal health care in the United States. It doesn't work and since we don't have it, that means someone is paying for it and guess what? There are lower-income families 01:37 who don't qualify for the benefits but they're taxpayers and they're being burdened by this. Back to the point which is that the system is insanely abused. I used to do child support referee work for years and you would v

Jul 27, 2025
Read more →
🔍
True

Fact Check: Autistic Non-Verbal Episodes in Marriage: Why Words Vanish Sometimes and What to Do About It Neurodiverse Couples Tuesday, august 12, 2025. Here’s the scene: You’re in the middle of a conversation with your spouse. Maybe the topic is small (“Did you pay the water bill?”) or monumental (“Are we happy?”). And then—without warning—your autistic partner’s voice disappears. No yelling, no slammed doors. Just… gone. You’re left holding the conversational steering wheel while they’ve quietly climbed into the trunk. If you’ve never lived with high-functioning autism, this can be tragically misconstrued as stonewalling or contempt. It isn’t. It’s just neurology pulling the emergency brake. Why This Happens: The Science Without the Lab Coat Smell For autistic adults, losing speech under stress is often a shutdown—a form of nervous system overload that knocks language production offline. Think of it like your phone freezing: all the apps are still there, but none of them open when you tap. Research calls this autistic burnout when it happens in a longer, chronic cycle—linked to masking (Hull et al., 2017; Raymaker et al., 2020). Masking is the art of “performing normal” so well that non-autistic people think you’re fine. The issue is that it eats through your energy reserves like a car idling in traffic with the A/C on full blast (Mantzalas et al., 2022). Eventually, one hard conversation can tip you from functional to frozen. And here’s where couples therapy meets neuroscience: physiological flooding—the body’s fight/flight/freeze switch—is a known relationship killer (Malik et al., 2019; Gottman Institute, 2024). In other words, for some autistic partners, flooding may tend to show up sooner, last longer, and is more likely to pull the plug on speech entirely. The Danger Loop in Marriage Autistic partner goes non-verbal — brain says “nope.” Non-autistic partner reads it as avoidance — brain says “attack.” Pressure increases — “Just say something.” Shutdown deepens — and now you’ve both lost. Do that a few hundred times and you’ll start conflating a physiological response into a moral failing. That’s the real marriage-killer. The Protocol: Three Phases, Zero Guesswork This is where we get practical. You can’t “love away” a temporary shutdown, but you can stop it from turning into World War III. Before: Build the Net Name the state. Agree on a phrase or signal ( I call this a couple code)—such as “words offline,” “shutdown,” a hand over the heart. The point is to make the invisible visible. The Shutdown Card. A literal card that says: I can’t speak right now. Please lower lights, reduce sound, give me X minutes. I promise I will circle back. The Pause Rule. Require a minimum of 20 minutes before resuming any tough talk. Autistic partner may need 90+. Agree ahead of time. Downgrade Kit. the usual gear; earplugs, soft light, weighted blanket, fidget, a quiet room. You know, human decency in object form. Reduce Daily Load. Avoid heavy talks right after work or big social events. Chronic overload makes a nervous shutdown more probable. During: Do Less, Better Autistic Partner: Give the signal. Exit stimulation. Switch channels if possible (text, notes app, yes/no cards). Send a short pre-written message: “Safe, can’t talk, back at 8:15.” Non-Autistic Partner: Acknowledge once—“Got it, I’m with you.” Hold the pause boundary. Lower stimuli. Go regulate your own nervous system—walk, journal, pet the dog. Don’t rehearse comebacks. Both: Avoid sarcasm, interrogation, ultimatums. Nothing lengthens a shutdown like moral outrage. After: Close the Loop Check in: “Are you ready to talk, or should we start in text?” Debrief: Identify triggers and what helped. Solve the actual problem. No conflict gets left to rot in the corner. Spot burnout early. If shutdowns start clustering, it’s time to reduce demands, not double them. How This Isn’t Stonewalling Stonewalling is a choice. Shutdown is a lockout. Stonewalling says, “I won’t talk to you.” Shutdown says, “I can’t talk to you yet, but I will.” The key difference? Repair intention. A shutdown protocol builds that right into the process. The Ten-Minute At-Home Drill Co-create your signal and card. Agree on a pause window. Pack the downgrade kit. Rehearse the exchange (“Got it, I’m with you.”). Check in weekly to tweak the system. Remember, you’re not aiming for zero shutdowns. You’re aiming for shorter, kinder, safer ones. Why This Works Because it matches lived autistic experience (Raymaker et al., 2020; Lewis et al., 2023). Because it honors nervous system limits instead of punishing them (Malik et al., 2019). Because it lets both partners keep their dignity and still solve the problem. In other words: you’re building a marriage that can survive the occasional moments when the words are gone for the time being. Be Well, Stay Kind, and Godspeed. REFERENCES: Hull, L., Mandy, W., Lai, M.-C., Baron-Cohen, S., Allison, C., Smith, P., & Petrides, K. V. (2017). “Putting on my best normal”: Social camouflaging in adults with autism spectrum conditions. Autism, 21(5), 611–622. https://doi.org/10.1177/1362361316671012 Raymaker, D. M., Teo, A. R., Steckler, N. A., Lentz, B., Scharer, M., Delos Santos, A., … & Nicolaidis, C. (2020). “Having all of your internal resources exhausted beyond measure and being left with no clean-up crew”: Defining autistic burnout. Autism in Adulthood, 2(2), 132–143. https://doi.org/10.1089/aut.2019.0079 Mantzalas, J., Richdale, A. L., Adikari, A., Lowe, J., & Dissanayake, C. (2022). What Is Autistic Burnout? A thematic analysis of posts on two online platforms. Autism in Adulthood, 4(1), 52–65. https://doi.org/10.1089/aut.2021.0079 Lewis, L. F., et al. (2023). The lived experience of meltdowns for autistic adults. Autism, 27(7), 1787–1799. https://doi.org/10.1177/13623613221145783 Malik, J., et al. (2019). Emotional flooding in response to negative affect in romantic relationships. Journal of Couple & Relationship Therapy, 18(4), 327–349. https://doi.org/10.1080/15332691.2019.1641188 Gottman Institute. (2024, March 4). Making sure emotional flooding doesn’t capsize your relationship. Retrieved from https://www.gottman.com/blog/making-sure-emotional-flooding-doesnt-capsize-your-relationship/

Detailed fact-check analysis of: Autistic Non-Verbal Episodes in Marriage: Why Words Vanish Sometimes and What to Do About It Neurodiverse Couples Tuesday, august 12, 2025. Here’s the scene: You’re in the middle of a conversation with your spouse. Maybe the topic is small (“Did you pay the water bill?”) or monumental (“Are we happy?”). And then—without warning—your autistic partner’s voice disappears. No yelling, no slammed doors. Just… gone. You’re left holding the conversational steering wheel while they’ve quietly climbed into the trunk. If you’ve never lived with high-functioning autism, this can be tragically misconstrued as stonewalling or contempt. It isn’t. It’s just neurology pulling the emergency brake. Why This Happens: The Science Without the Lab Coat Smell For autistic adults, losing speech under stress is often a shutdown—a form of nervous system overload that knocks language production offline. Think of it like your phone freezing: all the apps are still there, but none of them open when you tap. Research calls this autistic burnout when it happens in a longer, chronic cycle—linked to masking (Hull et al., 2017; Raymaker et al., 2020). Masking is the art of “performing normal” so well that non-autistic people think you’re fine. The issue is that it eats through your energy reserves like a car idling in traffic with the A/C on full blast (Mantzalas et al., 2022). Eventually, one hard conversation can tip you from functional to frozen. And here’s where couples therapy meets neuroscience: physiological flooding—the body’s fight/flight/freeze switch—is a known relationship killer (Malik et al., 2019; Gottman Institute, 2024). In other words, for some autistic partners, flooding may tend to show up sooner, last longer, and is more likely to pull the plug on speech entirely. The Danger Loop in Marriage Autistic partner goes non-verbal — brain says “nope.” Non-autistic partner reads it as avoidance — brain says “attack.” Pressure increases — “Just say something.” Shutdown deepens — and now you’ve both lost. Do that a few hundred times and you’ll start conflating a physiological response into a moral failing. That’s the real marriage-killer. The Protocol: Three Phases, Zero Guesswork This is where we get practical. You can’t “love away” a temporary shutdown, but you can stop it from turning into World War III. Before: Build the Net Name the state. Agree on a phrase or signal ( I call this a couple code)—such as “words offline,” “shutdown,” a hand over the heart. The point is to make the invisible visible. The Shutdown Card. A literal card that says: I can’t speak right now. Please lower lights, reduce sound, give me X minutes. I promise I will circle back. The Pause Rule. Require a minimum of 20 minutes before resuming any tough talk. Autistic partner may need 90+. Agree ahead of time. Downgrade Kit. the usual gear; earplugs, soft light, weighted blanket, fidget, a quiet room. You know, human decency in object form. Reduce Daily Load. Avoid heavy talks right after work or big social events. Chronic overload makes a nervous shutdown more probable. During: Do Less, Better Autistic Partner: Give the signal. Exit stimulation. Switch channels if possible (text, notes app, yes/no cards). Send a short pre-written message: “Safe, can’t talk, back at 8:15.” Non-Autistic Partner: Acknowledge once—“Got it, I’m with you.” Hold the pause boundary. Lower stimuli. Go regulate your own nervous system—walk, journal, pet the dog. Don’t rehearse comebacks. Both: Avoid sarcasm, interrogation, ultimatums. Nothing lengthens a shutdown like moral outrage. After: Close the Loop Check in: “Are you ready to talk, or should we start in text?” Debrief: Identify triggers and what helped. Solve the actual problem. No conflict gets left to rot in the corner. Spot burnout early. If shutdowns start clustering, it’s time to reduce demands, not double them. How This Isn’t Stonewalling Stonewalling is a choice. Shutdown is a lockout. Stonewalling says, “I won’t talk to you.” Shutdown says, “I can’t talk to you yet, but I will.” The key difference? Repair intention. A shutdown protocol builds that right into the process. The Ten-Minute At-Home Drill Co-create your signal and card. Agree on a pause window. Pack the downgrade kit. Rehearse the exchange (“Got it, I’m with you.”). Check in weekly to tweak the system. Remember, you’re not aiming for zero shutdowns. You’re aiming for shorter, kinder, safer ones. Why This Works Because it matches lived autistic experience (Raymaker et al., 2020; Lewis et al., 2023). Because it honors nervous system limits instead of punishing them (Malik et al., 2019). Because it lets both partners keep their dignity and still solve the problem. In other words: you’re building a marriage that can survive the occasional moments when the words are gone for the time being. Be Well, Stay Kind, and Godspeed. REFERENCES: Hull, L., Mandy, W., Lai, M.-C., Baron-Cohen, S., Allison, C., Smith, P., & Petrides, K. V. (2017). “Putting on my best normal”: Social camouflaging in adults with autism spectrum conditions. Autism, 21(5), 611–622. https://doi.org/10.1177/1362361316671012 Raymaker, D. M., Teo, A. R., Steckler, N. A., Lentz, B., Scharer, M., Delos Santos, A., … & Nicolaidis, C. (2020). “Having all of your internal resources exhausted beyond measure and being left with no clean-up crew”: Defining autistic burnout. Autism in Adulthood, 2(2), 132–143. https://doi.org/10.1089/aut.2019.0079 Mantzalas, J., Richdale, A. L., Adikari, A., Lowe, J., & Dissanayake, C. (2022). What Is Autistic Burnout? A thematic analysis of posts on two online platforms. Autism in Adulthood, 4(1), 52–65. https://doi.org/10.1089/aut.2021.0079 Lewis, L. F., et al. (2023). The lived experience of meltdowns for autistic adults. Autism, 27(7), 1787–1799. https://doi.org/10.1177/13623613221145783 Malik, J., et al. (2019). Emotional flooding in response to negative affect in romantic relationships. Journal of Couple & Relationship Therapy, 18(4), 327–349. https://doi.org/10.1080/15332691.2019.1641188 Gottman Institute. (2024, March 4). Making sure emotional flooding doesn’t capsize your relationship. Retrieved from https://www.gottman.com/blog/making-sure-emotional-flooding-doesnt-capsize-your-relationship/

Aug 12, 2025
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Fact Check: 	
Back to Vietnam you know
Vietnam doesn't have anything
there's no such thing as autism
in 1975 year 2000 year 2001
there's no such thing when
Vietnam signed the WHO we had
and when when Vietnam signed
into the International Monetary
Fund the banking system Bill
Gates and the Gates Foundation
introduced the vaccination
program into Vietnam now
Vietnam has over a 300% rise in
autism.
False

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Detailed fact-check analysis of: Back to Vietnam you know Vietnam doesn't have anything there's no such thing as autism in 1975 year 2000 year 2001 there's no such thing when Vietnam signed the WHO we had and when when Vietnam signed into the International Monetary Fund the banking system Bill Gates and the Gates Foundation introduced the vaccination program into Vietnam now Vietnam has over a 300% rise in autism.

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🔍
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Fact Check: Transcript 00:00 I'm Christy Nome here in Texas with my boots on the ground after this devastating tragedy that was absolutely not preventable and we are in no way responsible for it after visiting here I recently found out that Habius Corpus is the name of a city here in Texas and is in fact not a legal term which means the president can do whatever he wants. I have been told by some people that in addition to being the Secretary of Homeland Security that does also make me the head of Fema Fema sounds like female or feminism and that's DEI and 00:34 I don't believe in that. President Trump has entrusted me to be in charge of Fema which is not a federal emergency management agency. In fact, all emergencies are actually being managed by the state and the reason why I am here is to make sure to get some good film for my B roll. It is completely disgusting that there are people out there who are trying to politicize the devastation that happened here in Texas and I would like to remind everyone that it is only okay to politicize natural disasters when they happen in 01:04 blue states.

Detailed fact-check analysis of: Transcript 00:00 I'm Christy Nome here in Texas with my boots on the ground after this devastating tragedy that was absolutely not preventable and we are in no way responsible for it after visiting here I recently found out that Habius Corpus is the name of a city here in Texas and is in fact not a legal term which means the president can do whatever he wants. I have been told by some people that in addition to being the Secretary of Homeland Security that does also make me the head of Fema Fema sounds like female or feminism and that's DEI and 00:34 I don't believe in that. President Trump has entrusted me to be in charge of Fema which is not a federal emergency management agency. In fact, all emergencies are actually being managed by the state and the reason why I am here is to make sure to get some good film for my B roll. It is completely disgusting that there are people out there who are trying to politicize the devastation that happened here in Texas and I would like to remind everyone that it is only okay to politicize natural disasters when they happen in 01:04 blue states.

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Fact Check: There will be a recession in the United States in the year of 2025-2026 | TruthOrFake Blog