Fact Check: the year-to-date total to $1.36 trillion

Fact Check: "the year-to-date total to $1.36 trillion"

What We Know

The claim that the year-to-date total is $1.36 trillion appears to refer to the U.S. federal budget deficit. According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the federal deficit for 2023 is projected to total $1.4 trillion. This figure is based on the CBO's baseline projections, which estimate that the deficit will amount to 5.3% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for that year. The CBO regularly updates its economic outlook, and the latest report indicates that the deficit is expected to increase in subsequent years, averaging $2.0 trillion annually from 2024 to 2033.

Additionally, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) provides comprehensive economic statistics, but it does not specifically corroborate the claim of a $1.36 trillion deficit for the year-to-date. Instead, the BEA focuses on broader economic indicators, such as GDP growth and personal income.

Recent reports, such as one from CNBC, indicate that the U.S. budget deficit hit $316 billion in May 2025, which contributes to a year-to-date total of $1.36 trillion. However, this figure is not reflective of the entire fiscal year 2023, but rather a specific snapshot within the broader context of ongoing budgetary assessments.

Analysis

The claim that the year-to-date total is $1.36 trillion is misleading when placed in the context of the entire fiscal year. The CBO's projection of a $1.4 trillion deficit for 2023 is the authoritative figure for the entire year, and it is critical to differentiate between cumulative totals reported at specific points in time versus annual projections. The figure of $1.36 trillion, as reported by CNBC, pertains to a specific moment in the fiscal year and does not represent the final or total deficit for the year.

The reliability of the CBO as a source is high, as it is a nonpartisan agency that provides budgetary and economic analysis to Congress. The BEA also offers credible economic data, although it does not specifically address the deficit in the same manner as the CBO. The CNBC report, while timely, is focused on a specific monthly deficit and may not provide a complete picture of the overall fiscal situation for the year.

Thus, while the $1.36 trillion figure may be accurate for a specific point in time, it does not accurately reflect the total projected deficit for the entire year of 2023, which is $1.4 trillion.

Conclusion

Verdict: False
The claim that the year-to-date total is $1.36 trillion is misleading. The correct projection for the federal deficit in 2023, as stated by the Congressional Budget Office, is $1.4 trillion. The figure of $1.36 trillion refers to a specific moment in the fiscal year and does not represent the total deficit for the year.

Fact Check: the year-to-date total to $1.36 trillion