Fact Check: The UK government debt could soar to three times the size of the economy.

Fact Check: "The UK government debt could soar to three times the size of the economy."

What We Know

The claim that UK government debt could soar to three times the size of the economy is not supported by current data. As of February 2025, public sector net debt in the UK was estimated at 95.5% of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) (Office for National Statistics). This figure indicates that the debt is significantly below the threefold GDP mark. In fact, the debt levels are at their highest since the early 1960s, largely due to increased borrowing during the COVID-19 pandemic, but still far from reaching 300% of GDP (Statista).

The UK's government expenditure for the 2024/25 financial year was approximately £1.28 trillion, with borrowing amounting to £151 billion (Statista). This indicates that while borrowing is substantial, it does not approach the levels that would result in debt reaching three times the economy's size.

Analysis

The assertion that UK government debt could reach three times the size of the economy lacks a factual basis. Current estimates show that public sector net debt is around 95.5% of GDP, which is a far cry from the claimed 300%. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has forecasted that public sector borrowing for the financial year ending March 2025 will be approximately £127.5 billion, which further supports the notion that debt levels are manageable and not on a trajectory to triple (Office for National Statistics).

Moreover, historical context shows that UK government debt has fluctuated significantly over the decades, peaking at 251.7% shortly after World War II but gradually decreasing over time until the recent pandemic-induced rise (Statista). The current trajectory suggests that while debt is high, it is expected to start declining after 2029/30, contingent on reducing government deficits in the coming years (Statista).

The sources used in this analysis are credible, including government reports and reputable statistical databases. The Office for National Statistics is the UK's largest independent producer of official statistics, and Statista is a well-regarded provider of market and consumer data.

Conclusion

Verdict: False. The claim that UK government debt could soar to three times the size of the economy is not substantiated by current data. Public sector net debt is approximately 95.5% of GDP, significantly below the threefold mark. The trajectory of UK debt indicates that while it is at historically high levels, it is not on a path to triple in relation to the economy.

Fact Check: The UK government debt could soar to three times the size of the economy.