Fact Check: The Soviet union killed between 20 and 60 million people from 1917 to 1953

The Claim: "The Soviet Union killed between 20 and 60 million people from 1917 to 1953"

Introduction

The claim that the Soviet Union was responsible for the deaths of between 20 and 60 million people from 1917 to 1953 is a contentious topic in historical discourse. This claim encompasses various events, including famines, purges, and the consequences of state policies. The figures cited often vary widely, leading to debates among historians and scholars regarding their accuracy and methodology.

What We Know

1. Excess Mortality Estimates: A study published in the American Journal of Public Health estimates that forced industrialization and related policies resulted in a minimum of 12.6 million and a maximum of over 23.5 million excess deaths between 1929 and 1949 due to famine and repression 1.

2. Demographic Analyses: The historian Alexander Dyadkin has provided estimates suggesting that the total number of deaths attributable to Soviet policies from 1918 to 1953 could be around 22 million 2.

3. Broader Estimates: A chapter from the University of Hawaii's Lethal Politics suggests a much higher range, estimating that between 28 million and 126 million people may have been killed by the Communist Party of the Soviet Union from 1917 to 1987, with a "prudent estimate" of 61.9 million 3.

4. Holodomor: The Holodomor, a man-made famine in Ukraine from 1932 to 1933, is cited as a significant contributor to excess mortality, with millions of Ukrainians dying as a result of policies enacted by the Soviet government 4.

5. Gulag and Deportations: According to Wikipedia, over 14 million people passed through the Gulag system from 1929 to 1953, with an additional 7 to 8 million deported 5.

6. Mass Killings Under Communist Regimes: Estimates of deaths from various communist regimes, including the Soviet Union, range from 10 to 20 million to as high as 148 million, indicating a significant degree of uncertainty and debate within the academic community 6.

7. World War II Casualties: The Soviet Union suffered approximately 27 million casualties during World War II, a figure that includes both military and civilian deaths, though the exact numbers remain disputed 7.

8. Demographic Changes: The aftermath of the Russian Revolution and Civil War saw significant population losses, with millions of inhabitants lost from former territories of the Russian Empire 8.

9. Historical Revisions: Soviet-era estimates of war dead were revised multiple times, with figures fluctuating significantly over the decades, reflecting the political context of the time 9.

Analysis

The claim of 20 to 60 million deaths due to Soviet policies is supported by a range of estimates, but these figures are derived from various methodologies and sources, leading to significant discrepancies.

• Source Reliability: The sources cited vary in credibility. Academic publications like the study in American Journal of Public Health are generally reliable, as they undergo peer review and are based on demographic analysis. However, estimates from less formal sources, such as personal websites or non-peer-reviewed articles, may lack rigorous methodological backing and could be influenced by ideological biases.

• Bias and Conflicts of Interest: Some sources, particularly those that present extreme estimates (like the University of Hawaii's chapter), may have an agenda that influences their interpretations of historical events. This is particularly relevant in discussions surrounding communism and its impact, where political motivations can color the presentation of data.

• Methodological Concerns: Many estimates rely on demographic modeling, which can be inherently uncertain. Factors such as incomplete records, differing definitions of what constitutes a death attributable to state policy, and the challenges of historical data collection complicate the accuracy of these figures.

• Contextual Factors: The historical context of the Soviet Union, including the impact of World War II, internal purges, and famines, must be considered when evaluating these claims. The interplay of these factors makes it difficult to attribute specific death tolls solely to state actions without considering broader socio-political dynamics.

Conclusion

Verdict: Partially True

The claim that the Soviet Union killed between 20 and 60 million people from 1917 to 1953 is partially true, as it is supported by various estimates that suggest significant excess mortality due to state policies, famines, and purges. Evidence from credible studies indicates that millions of deaths can be attributed to these factors, with estimates ranging from 12.6 million to over 61 million. However, the wide range of figures and the differing methodologies used to arrive at these estimates introduce considerable uncertainty.

The limitations of the available evidence include potential biases in sources, the challenges of demographic modeling, and the historical context that complicates the attribution of deaths to specific policies. As such, while the claim has merit, it is essential to approach it with caution and recognize the complexities involved.

Readers are encouraged to critically evaluate information and consider the nuances of historical claims, as the interpretation of data can vary significantly among scholars and sources.

Sources

1. Excess mortality in the Soviet Union: a reconsideration of the demographic consequences of forced industrialization 1929-1949. PubMed
2. Soviet Genocide and Mass Murder Since 1917. University of Hawaii
3. Lethal Politics - University of Hawaii System. University of Hawaii
4. Holodomor | Holocaust and Genocide Studies. University of Minnesota
5. Excess mortality in the Soviet Union under Joseph Stalin - Wikipedia. Wikipedia
6. Mass killings under communist regimes - Wikipedia. Wikipedia
7. World War II casualties of the Soviet Union - Wikipedia. Wikipedia
8. Demographics of the Soviet Union - Wikipedia. Wikipedia
9. History of the Soviet Union (1927–1953) - Wikipedia. Wikipedia