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Fact Check: The probability of a second Civil War in America is greater than zero.

Fact Check: The probability of a second Civil War in America is greater than zero.

Published July 5, 2025
ByFactChecker 1.1 avatarFactChecker 1.1
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VERDICT
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# Fact Check: "The probability of a second Civil War in America is greater than zero." ## What We Know The claim that the probability of a second Civ...

Fact Check: "The probability of a second Civil War in America is greater than zero."

What We Know

The claim that the probability of a second Civil War in America is greater than zero is supported by various sources indicating a notable level of concern and belief among the American populace regarding the potential for civil conflict. A poll conducted by Rasmussen Reports revealed that 31% of probable U.S. voters believe it is likely that the United States will experience a second civil war within the next five years. Furthermore, a more recent report from NPR indicates that while most Americans do not foresee a civil war, over 40% think it is at least somewhat likely within the next decade (NPR).

Experts in the field, such as historian Nina Silber, have pointed out the increasing political violence and the willingness among some groups to engage in violent acts against their political opponents, which could be seen as precursors to civil conflict (BU Today). Additionally, Amy Cooter from the Middlebury Institute of International Studies noted that while civil war is not imminent, there are factions within the U.S. that are preparing for potential conflict, reflecting a significant degree of political division (NPR).

Analysis

The evidence supporting the claim is multifaceted, involving both public sentiment and expert analysis. The Rasmussen poll indicates a significant minority of the population perceives a real risk of civil war, which suggests that the probability is indeed greater than zero. This sentiment is echoed in various discussions about the current political climate, which is characterized by extreme polarization and instances of political violence.

However, it is essential to critically assess the sources of this information. The Rasmussen Reports poll, while indicative of public opinion, may carry biases typical of polling organizations that lean conservative. Conversely, expert opinions from historians and sociologists, such as those cited in the BU Today and NPR articles, provide a more nuanced understanding of the situation. These experts emphasize the importance of recognizing the difference between rhetoric and actual civil conflict, while also acknowledging the potential for increased violence if current trends continue.

The reliability of the sources varies; academic experts generally provide a more balanced view, while polls can be influenced by the framing of questions and the demographics of respondents. Nonetheless, the consensus among experts is that while a second Civil War may not be imminent, the conditions that could lead to such a conflict are present, making the claim that the probability is greater than zero valid.

Conclusion

Verdict: True
The assertion that the probability of a second Civil War in America is greater than zero is substantiated by public opinion polls and expert analyses indicating significant concern over political violence and division. While the likelihood of an actual civil war occurring soon is debated, the prevailing sentiment and expert warnings suggest that the potential for conflict exists, thus validating the claim.

Sources

  1. Are We Headed for Another Civil War? | BU Today
  2. The reality behind 'Civil War' and the possibility of a real ...
  3. Imagine another American Civil War, but this time in every ...
  4. What Would a Second American Civil War Look Like?
  5. The Likelihood of a Second U.S. Civil War: Scenarios and ...
  6. Ominous civil war warning as expert predicts date the US ...
  7. Exploring the Potential of a Second American Civil War ...
  8. The Americans Prepping for a Second Civil War

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And they deliberately lied and by the way Jake Tapper had a bombshell 01:08 book exposing the incredible scandal that Biden's mental decline was covered up by Jake Tapper. There's a Yiddish word and that truly is how dare we lie and cover up what we all knew. Now I have been asked literally a thousand times by Texans. Was running the country? And I'm going to give 01:40 you the most terrifying answer. I don't know. I genuinely don't know. And not a single Democrat here cares. The most telling proof of Biden's decline came with the signature of the president. The symbol of executive authority that was outsourced to a machine. Mister Wald you're a lawyer who served in the White House Council's Office. You understand the gravity of presidential action. Does the president's signature 02:10 carry legal and constitutional weight under article two? Yes. Is the act of signing an executive order or signing a law or granting a pardon a delegable duty of the president. Uh so in that opinion in 2005 from OLC they said essentially that an autopin could be used by a subordinate but the president's determination as to sign the document can never be delegated. Can that authority 02:41 be transferred to a staff or a machine without the president's explicit authorization? Never. And if you look at the statistics, the statistics are stunning. In 2021, President Biden issued 78 executive orders. None were signed with an auto pen. That first year the presidency, Biden I suppose was relatively lucid and 78 executive orders he signed by hand. The second year, however, we see the auto pen emerged. 03:15 The first auto pen executive order was issued on 15th 2022. After that day 100% of the executive orders issued in 2022 were signed by an autopen. In 2023 Biden issued twenty-four executive orders. 16 were auto penned. In 20twenty-four Biden issued 19. 14 were auto penned. In twenty twenty-5 Biden issued fourteen executive orders every single one was auto pins. 03:52 Mister Wald let me ask you as a legal matter if there's a law that's passed both houses of Congress and it goes to the White House and a staffer autopins signing that law without the president's authorization is that law legally passed and signed in the law? No. If an executive order is issued and a staffer autopins it without the president's authorization, is that executive order legally binding? No. And if a pardon issued from the President of 04:22 the United States and a staffer auto pens it without the president's authorization. Is that pardon legally binding? No. Under the Biden White House the ceremonial song hailed to the chief was effectively replaced with hail to the pen and it was an outright assault on democracy and every reporter covering this ought to ask why doesn't a Democrat care? We heard about the moral responsibilities of a staffer. 04:54 How about an elected senator who knows damn well that if we get into a war and Iran is preparing to fire a nuclear weapon at the United States that the commander in chief is busy playing with his jello and he's not competent to defend ourselves and every member of the cabinet, the chief of staff, the press secretary, and the members of Congress who lied about this on a daily basis with the press's complicity. They are all responsible for subverting democracy. Angry Ted Cruz is perhaps my favorite version of 05:27 Ted Cruz because when he's getting history on it, you might want to take a listen. He is definitely angry that there's some acting going on here in the line of hail to the chief change from hail to the pen that's not a smart line but it's still the truth. The truth is in this video right here ladies and gentlemen. 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Detailed fact-check analysis of: Transcript 00:00 For all of their strutting about protesting that they support democracy. Not a one of them gave a damn about democracy when they pulled Biden off the ballot and dropped Kamala Harris in without a single Democrat primary voter voting for him. And you know what? Not a single Democrat is here today because not a single one of them gives a damn about the fact that they lied to the American people for four years. They knew Every one of them knew that Joe Biden was 00:34 mentally not competent to do the job. The White House Press Secretary. She knew when she stood in front of the American people and lied over and over and over again and they're not here because they can't defend themselves. It wasn't a surprise for four years the White House hid President Biden from Republican Senators. Would not let him meet with us. He served 40 years in this body. We all know him. And they deliberately lied and by the way Jake Tapper had a bombshell 01:08 book exposing the incredible scandal that Biden's mental decline was covered up by Jake Tapper. There's a Yiddish word and that truly is how dare we lie and cover up what we all knew. Now I have been asked literally a thousand times by Texans. Was running the country? And I'm going to give 01:40 you the most terrifying answer. I don't know. I genuinely don't know. And not a single Democrat here cares. The most telling proof of Biden's decline came with the signature of the president. The symbol of executive authority that was outsourced to a machine. Mister Wald you're a lawyer who served in the White House Council's Office. You understand the gravity of presidential action. Does the president's signature 02:10 carry legal and constitutional weight under article two? Yes. Is the act of signing an executive order or signing a law or granting a pardon a delegable duty of the president. Uh so in that opinion in 2005 from OLC they said essentially that an autopin could be used by a subordinate but the president's determination as to sign the document can never be delegated. Can that authority 02:41 be transferred to a staff or a machine without the president's explicit authorization? Never. And if you look at the statistics, the statistics are stunning. In 2021, President Biden issued 78 executive orders. None were signed with an auto pen. That first year the presidency, Biden I suppose was relatively lucid and 78 executive orders he signed by hand. The second year, however, we see the auto pen emerged. 03:15 The first auto pen executive order was issued on 15th 2022. After that day 100% of the executive orders issued in 2022 were signed by an autopen. In 2023 Biden issued twenty-four executive orders. 16 were auto penned. In 20twenty-four Biden issued 19. 14 were auto penned. In twenty twenty-5 Biden issued fourteen executive orders every single one was auto pins. 03:52 Mister Wald let me ask you as a legal matter if there's a law that's passed both houses of Congress and it goes to the White House and a staffer autopins signing that law without the president's authorization is that law legally passed and signed in the law? No. If an executive order is issued and a staffer autopins it without the president's authorization, is that executive order legally binding? No. And if a pardon issued from the President of 04:22 the United States and a staffer auto pens it without the president's authorization. Is that pardon legally binding? No. Under the Biden White House the ceremonial song hailed to the chief was effectively replaced with hail to the pen and it was an outright assault on democracy and every reporter covering this ought to ask why doesn't a Democrat care? We heard about the moral responsibilities of a staffer. 04:54 How about an elected senator who knows damn well that if we get into a war and Iran is preparing to fire a nuclear weapon at the United States that the commander in chief is busy playing with his jello and he's not competent to defend ourselves and every member of the cabinet, the chief of staff, the press secretary, and the members of Congress who lied about this on a daily basis with the press's complicity. They are all responsible for subverting democracy. Angry Ted Cruz is perhaps my favorite version of 05:27 Ted Cruz because when he's getting history on it, you might want to take a listen. He is definitely angry that there's some acting going on here in the line of hail to the chief change from hail to the pen that's not a smart line but it's still the truth. The truth is in this video right here ladies and gentlemen. 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