Fact Check: "The population of Gaza has increased since October 7th"
What We Know
The claim that the population of Gaza has increased since October 7, 2023, is contradicted by multiple sources. According to the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS), the ongoing conflict that began on October 7 has led to significant displacement, with approximately 2 million Palestinians fleeing their homes in Gaza. The total population of Gaza before the conflict was about 2.2 million. The PCBS also reports that the number of casualties has been staggering, with over 39,000 Palestinians reported dead, which constitutes about 1.7% of the total population of Gaza.
Furthermore, the PCBS anticipates a decline in the population growth rate for 2024 due to the ongoing violence and the resulting socio-economic conditions. They predict that the growth rate will decrease from approximately 2.7% in 2023 to around 1% in 2024, indicating a long-term impact on the population structure due to the conflict (PCBS).
Analysis
The claim of an increase in Gaza's population since October 7, 2023, appears to stem from a report by the New York Center for Foreign Policy Affairs, which states that the population has increased by 2.02% since that date. However, this assertion lacks substantial backing from credible demographic data and does not align with the reports from the PCBS, which provide a detailed account of the humanitarian crisis unfolding in Gaza.
The PCBS data highlights not only the number of casualties but also the displacement of nearly the entire population of Gaza, suggesting that the population is not only not increasing but is likely decreasing due to deaths and emigration. The reliability of the PCBS as a source is high, given its official status and the comprehensive nature of its demographic studies. In contrast, the report from the New York Center for Foreign Policy Affairs lacks the same level of empirical support and may be influenced by political biases.
Additionally, the OCHA reports on internal displacement and the humanitarian situation in Gaza further corroborate the PCBS findings, emphasizing the severe impact of the conflict on the population.
Conclusion
The claim that the population of Gaza has increased since October 7, 2023, is False. The evidence clearly indicates that the population has been significantly affected by the conflict, with a high number of casualties and widespread displacement. The predictions of a declining growth rate further support the conclusion that the population is not increasing but rather decreasing due to the ongoing humanitarian crisis.
