Fact Check: The Ogallala Aquifer is close to being drained

The Claim: "The Ogallala Aquifer is close to being drained"

Introduction

The claim that "The Ogallala Aquifer is close to being drained" suggests an urgent crisis regarding one of the largest aquifers in the United States, which underlies parts of eight states in the Great Plains region. This assertion raises concerns about water availability, agricultural sustainability, and the potential socio-economic impacts on rural communities reliant on this vital resource.

What We Know

1. Aquifer Status: The Ogallala Aquifer, also known as the High Plains Aquifer, is crucial for agricultural irrigation, supplying about 30% of the groundwater used for irrigation in the United States. Reports indicate significant depletion, with some areas experiencing water level declines of over 16 feet from predevelopment levels to 2019, and a further drop of more than a foot in parts of western Kansas as of early 2025 110.

2. Economic Impact: The depletion of the aquifer poses a severe threat to agricultural output. According to a report, if the aquifer were to go dry, it could result in the loss of over $20 billion worth of food and fiber from global markets 2. The High Plains region accounts for a significant portion of U.S. agricultural production, making the implications of depletion far-reaching.

3. Current Water Levels: A 2023 report indicated that in some areas, less than 40% of the original aquifer thickness remains, highlighting the severity of the depletion 4. The ongoing demand for irrigation has led to an average consumption of over 2 billion gallons of groundwater per day in Kansas alone 9.

4. Long-term Projections: Experts warn that continued over-extraction could lead to a situation where the aquifer is effectively drained, making it unsustainable for agricultural practices in the future 8. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these issues, further reducing the reliability of irrigated farming 8.

Analysis

The claim regarding the Ogallala Aquifer's imminent depletion is supported by various credible sources, including scientific reports and news articles. However, it is essential to critically evaluate these sources for reliability and potential biases:

• Scientific Reports: The Kansas Geological Survey and other scientific entities provide data-driven insights into the aquifer's status. Their reports are based on extensive groundwater use data and monitoring, making them reliable sources for understanding the aquifer's condition 14. However, these reports may focus on specific regions, potentially overlooking broader trends.

• News Articles: Publications like the New York Times and regional news outlets report on the aquifer's status and its implications for agriculture and rural communities. While these articles often present well-researched information, they may also emphasize dramatic narratives that could skew public perception 79.

• Potential Conflicts of Interest: Some reports, particularly those from agricultural policy news sources, may have inherent biases, as they could be influenced by stakeholders in the agricultural sector who have vested interests in the aquifer's management 2.

• Methodology Concerns: The methodologies used in studies and reports vary. For example, some reports utilize historical data to project future conditions, which may not account for rapid changes due to climate variability or policy shifts. More comprehensive studies that include diverse data points and predictive modeling would enhance understanding of the aquifer's future 35.

Conclusion

Verdict: True

The claim that "The Ogallala Aquifer is close to being drained" is substantiated by significant evidence indicating severe depletion of the aquifer's water levels, particularly in certain areas. Key evidence includes reports of water level declines exceeding 16 feet in some regions since predevelopment levels, with projections suggesting that continued over-extraction could render the aquifer unsustainable for agricultural use. The economic implications of this depletion are profound, potentially threatening billions of dollars in agricultural output.

However, it is important to note that while the evidence supports the claim, there are limitations in the available data. Reports may focus on specific regions, and methodologies can vary, which may affect the overall understanding of the aquifer's status. Additionally, the narrative surrounding the aquifer's depletion can sometimes be influenced by biases in reporting and stakeholder interests.

Readers are encouraged to critically evaluate information regarding the Ogallala Aquifer and consider the nuances and complexities involved in understanding its status and future sustainability.

Sources

1. Kansas Geological Survey. 2023 Status of the High Plains Aquifer in Kansas. Link
2. Illinois Farm Policy News. Ogallala Aquifer Depletion Threatening Rural Communities & Ag. Link
3. USDA Climate Hubs. Impacts to the Ogallala Aquifer. Link
4. Kansas Geological Survey. 2023 Status of the High Plains Aquifer in Kansas (Technical Series). Link
5. U.S. Drought Monitor. 2024 Ogallala Aquifer Summit Summary Report. Link
6. U.S. Geological Survey. High Plains Water Level Monitoring Study. Link
7. New York Times. America Is Using Up Its Groundwater Like There's No Tomorrow. Link
8. My High Plains. The Ogallala Aquifer: When will the wells run dry? What then? Link
9. KCUR. With the Ogallala Aquifer drying up, Kansas ponders limits to irrigation. Link
10. Kansas Reflector. Ogallala Aquifer drops by more than a foot in parts of western Kansas. Link