Fact Check: The National Weather Service accurately predicted the risk of flooding in Texas.

Fact Check: "The National Weather Service accurately predicted the risk of flooding in Texas."

What We Know

The National Weather Service (NWS) issued a series of warnings leading up to the catastrophic flooding in Texas, which occurred around July 4, 2025. An initial flood watch was issued at 1:18 PM on Thursday, predicting between 5 to 7 inches of rain, which escalated to flash flood warnings early Friday morning, including an urgent warning at 4:03 AM that indicated a severe threat to life and property (source-2). Despite these warnings, local officials expressed that they did not anticipate the intensity of the rainfall, which resulted in over 51 fatalities, including children from a summer camp (source-3).

Meteorologists from various agencies, including AccuWeather, noted that while the NWS provided warnings, the local response was insufficient, as many residents did not evacuate or take necessary precautions (source-4). The NWS had adequate staffing during the event, despite previous staffing cuts that some experts warned could impact forecasting accuracy (source-5).

Analysis

The NWS did issue timely warnings regarding the flooding risk, which were communicated through various channels, including mobile alerts (source-6). However, local officials criticized the NWS for not accurately predicting the volume of rainfall that occurred, which was significantly higher than forecasted. For instance, Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly stated that "no one knew this kind of flood was coming," indicating a disconnect between the forecasts and the actual weather event (source-3).

While the NWS did fulfill its role in issuing warnings, the effectiveness of these warnings was undermined by local preparedness and response. Many residents did not heed the warnings, and local officials expressed that the public may have become desensitized to frequent alerts (source-2). Additionally, some experts pointed out that the staffing cuts at the NWS could have long-term implications for forecasting accuracy, although the agency maintained that it had sufficient resources during this specific event (source-5).

Conclusion

The claim that "The National Weather Service accurately predicted the risk of flooding in Texas" is Partially True. The NWS did issue timely warnings about the flooding risk, which were crucial in alerting the public. However, the actual rainfall exceeded the forecasts, and local officials failed to adequately prepare for the severity of the situation. The effectiveness of the NWS's predictions was hampered by local response issues and public desensitization to weather alerts.

Sources

1. Search for Texas flood victims enters third day as more rain ...
2. Texas officials face scrutiny over response to catastrophic ...
3. Texas officials question scaled-back Weather Service's ...
4. Texas floods: Weather Service defends its forecasts as Texas ...
5. Meteorologists Say the National Weather Service Did Its ...
6. Weather Service Staffing 'Clearly a Concern' Ahead of ...
7. As Flood Deaths Rise, Texas Officials Blast Faulty Forecast ...
8. Was the Hill Country sufficiently warned about ...