Fact Check: "The government recorded 15,382 deaths last month, with one person dying every 2.9 minutes on average, corresponding to a crude death rate of 7.75 per 1,000 annually."
What We Know
The claim states that the government recorded 15,382 deaths in the previous month, which translates to an average of one death every 2.9 minutes and corresponds to a crude death rate of 7.75 per 1,000 annually. According to the Quarterly Provisional Mortality Estimates, these figures are derived from mortality data collected by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
The reported number of deaths can be calculated as follows:
- Total deaths in a month: 15,382
- Average deaths per minute: 15,382 deaths / (30 days * 24 hours * 60 minutes) = approximately 10.7 deaths per minute, which translates to one death every 5.6 minutes, not 2.9 minutes.
The crude death rate of 7.75 per 1,000 annually is also a point of contention. The CDC's estimates indicate that the crude death rate can vary based on the population size and the time frame considered. The U.S. Death Rate for recent years has been around 9.20 to 9.80 per 1,000, suggesting that the claim's figure may not align with the broader context of death rates.
Analysis
The claim about 15,382 deaths in a month appears to be based on actual data from the CDC, but the calculation of one death every 2.9 minutes is incorrect. The average of one death every 5.6 minutes is more accurate based on the total monthly deaths.
Regarding the crude death rate of 7.75 per 1,000, this figure does not align with the broader statistics available. The CDC's mortality dashboard and the data from Macrotrends indicate that the crude death rate is higher than the claimed figure, generally falling between 9.20 and 9.80 per 1,000 in recent years. This discrepancy raises questions about the accuracy of the claim, particularly in how the crude death rate was calculated and presented.
The sources used for this analysis are credible, with the CDC being a primary source for health-related statistics in the U.S. However, the interpretation of the data in the claim may be misleading or miscalculated, which is a critical factor in evaluating its overall truthfulness.
Conclusion
The claim is Partially True. While the reported number of deaths (15,382) is likely accurate, the assertion that one person dies every 2.9 minutes is incorrect, as the actual figure is closer to one death every 5.6 minutes. Additionally, the crude death rate of 7.75 per 1,000 does not reflect the current statistics, which indicate a higher rate. Thus, while there is a basis in fact, the claim is misleading due to inaccuracies in the calculations and the presentation of the death rate.
