Fact Check: "The Congressional Budget Office estimates the U.S. deficit will increase by $3.3 trillion."
What We Know
The claim that the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates an increase in the U.S. deficit by $3.3 trillion is based on recent reports regarding proposed legislation. Specifically, the CBO has indicated that certain legislative proposals, such as the Republican Senate tax bill, would indeed add significant amounts to the national debt. For instance, a report from the Associated Press states that the CBO estimates this tax bill would add $3.3 trillion to the U.S. debt load. Similarly, the New York Times corroborates this by reporting that the Senate bill would add at least $3.3 trillion to the already substantial national debt.
However, it is crucial to differentiate between "debt" and "deficit." The deficit refers to the annual shortfall when the government spends more than it earns, while the debt is the cumulative total of all deficits over time.
Analysis
While the reports from the Associated Press and the New York Times provide figures regarding the potential increase in national debt due to specific legislative actions, they do not directly state that the CBO estimates a $3.3 trillion increase in the annual deficit itself. The CBO's own publications indicate a current federal budget deficit of approximately $1.9 trillion for the year, with projections for future deficits that do not align with the $3.3 trillion figure in the context of annual deficits (CBO Publications).
Moreover, the CBO has stated that enacting certain amendments would not increase on-budget deficits after 2034 relative to their baseline budget projections (CBO Amendment Effects). This suggests that while certain legislative actions may increase the overall debt, they do not necessarily lead to a corresponding increase in the annual deficit.
The sources reporting the $3.3 trillion figure are credible and well-established news organizations, but they may have conflated the concepts of debt and deficit in their reporting. It is essential to rely on the CBO's direct estimates and projections for accurate information regarding annual deficits.
Conclusion
Verdict: False
The claim that the CBO estimates the U.S. deficit will increase by $3.3 trillion is misleading. While the CBO has indicated that certain legislative proposals could add $3.3 trillion to the national debt, this does not equate to an increase in the annual deficit itself. The current and projected deficits, as reported by the CBO, do not support the claim.
