Fact Check: The Congressional Budget Office estimates budget deficits can total trillions of dollars.

Fact Check: "The Congressional Budget Office estimates budget deficits can total trillions of dollars."

What We Know

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) regularly publishes projections regarding the federal budget and economic outlook. In its latest report, titled The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2025 to 2035, the CBO estimates that the federal budget deficit will reach $1.9 trillion in the fiscal year 2025. This figure is projected to grow to $2.7 trillion by 2035, which would represent 6.1% of GDP at that time. The report indicates that the federal debt is expected to rise to 118% of GDP by 2035, significantly higher than historical averages.

The CBO's projections are based on the assumption that current laws governing taxes and spending remain unchanged. This includes anticipated increases in mandatory spending, particularly for programs like Social Security and Medicare, which are expected to outpace revenue growth in the coming years (source).

Analysis

The claim that "budget deficits can total trillions of dollars" is supported by the CBO's projections, which indicate that the deficits will indeed reach trillions. The CBO is a nonpartisan agency that provides reliable and objective analysis of budgetary and economic issues. Its reports are widely regarded as credible and are used by policymakers across the political spectrum.

The specific figures provided by the CBO—$1.9 trillion for 2025 and $2.7 trillion for 2035—are not only large but also indicative of a trend where federal outlays are projected to increase faster than revenues. This trend is attributed to rising mandatory spending and interest costs, which are expected to grow as a share of GDP (source).

Moreover, the CBO's methodology and the assumptions underlying its projections are transparent, allowing for scrutiny and validation by independent analysts. The agency's reports are based on comprehensive economic forecasts that consider various factors, including economic growth, inflation, and changes in tax policy (source).

While some may argue that these projections are subject to change based on future legislative actions or economic conditions, the CBO's estimates provide a solid foundation for understanding the potential scale of future deficits. The agency's historical accuracy in forecasting budgetary trends further reinforces the reliability of its current estimates.

Conclusion

Verdict: True. The claim that the Congressional Budget Office estimates budget deficits can total trillions of dollars is accurate. The CBO's projections indicate a federal budget deficit of $1.9 trillion in 2025, growing to $2.7 trillion by 2035, supported by credible and transparent analysis.

Fact Check: The Congressional Budget Office estimates budget deficits can total trillions of dollars.