Fact Check: "The Congressional Budget Office estimates 11.8 million more uninsured Americans by 2034."
What We Know
The claim that the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates 11.8 million more uninsured Americans by 2034 is supported by multiple sources. According to a letter from the CBO, the Senate Republican reconciliation bill, which includes significant cuts to Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP), would lead to an increase of 11.8 million uninsured individuals compared to current law by the year 2034 (CBO Report). This estimate is notably higher than the 10.9 million increase projected for the House version of the bill (Georgetown CCF).
The CBO's analysis also indicates that these projections account for various policy changes included in the legislation, which would further restrict Medicaid eligibility and funding (The Hill). The estimates are based on the CBO's assessment of the impact of these policies on health insurance coverage.
Analysis
The CBO is a nonpartisan agency that provides budget and economic information to Congress, making its estimates a reliable source for understanding the potential impacts of legislative proposals. The CBO's projection of 11.8 million more uninsured individuals is corroborated by several independent analyses, including reports from major news outlets such as The New York Times and Axios.
The reliability of the CBO's estimates stems from its rigorous methodology, which includes modeling the effects of proposed legislation on health coverage and budgetary outcomes. However, it is important to note that these estimates are preliminary and may be subject to change as the legislative process evolves and further amendments are made to the bill (Georgetown CCF).
Critically, while the CBO's projections are based on the best available data, they do not account for all potential interactions with other health care provisions, such as those affecting the Affordable Care Act's marketplaces. This limitation could influence the overall impact on the uninsured population, but the core estimate of 11.8 million remains a significant indicator of the potential consequences of the proposed legislation.
Conclusion
The claim that the CBO estimates an increase of 11.8 million uninsured Americans by 2034 is True. This figure is derived from the CBO's analysis of the Senate Republican reconciliation bill, which includes substantial cuts to Medicaid and CHIP. The estimate is supported by multiple credible sources and reflects the potential impact of the proposed policies on health insurance coverage.
Sources
- Estimated Effects on the Number of Uninsured People in 2034 Resulting ...
- Congressional Budget Office Confirms Senate Republican Reconciliation ...
- G.O.P. Bill Has $1.1 Trillion in Health Cuts and 11.8 Million Losing ...
- GOP tax bill would mean 11.8 million people uninsured, $1.1 ...
- 11.8 million more uninsured from Senate bill: CBO
