Fact Check: The Congressional Budget Office estimated a $3.3 trillion deficit increase over a decade.

Fact Check: "The Congressional Budget Office estimated a $3.3 trillion deficit increase over a decade."

What We Know

The claim that the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated a $3.3 trillion deficit increase over a decade appears to be a misinterpretation of the CBO's actual estimates related to the H.R. 1, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. According to the CBO, the enactment of this bill would increase deficits by approximately $2.4 trillion over the 2025–2034 period, excluding any macroeconomic or debt-service effects (source-1). When accounting for additional debt-service costs, the cumulative effect on the deficit would rise to about $3.0 trillion, not $3.3 trillion (source-2).

Furthermore, the CBO's estimates also indicate that the overall debt held by the public would increase by $3.3 trillion relative to its January 2025 baseline, which is distinct from the deficit increase itself (source-4).

Analysis

The discrepancy in the claim stems from conflating the increase in the deficit with the increase in the total debt held by the public. The CBO's estimate of a $2.4 trillion increase in deficits does not include macroeconomic feedback effects, which, when considered, raise the total estimated deficit increase to $2.8 trillion (source-2).

The original claim of a $3.3 trillion deficit increase is misleading because it does not accurately reflect the CBO's findings. The CBO's estimates are based on rigorous economic modeling and are considered reliable, as they are produced by a nonpartisan agency tasked with providing budgetary and economic analysis to Congress.

The sources used to support the claim, such as news articles (source-5, source-6), may have misinterpreted or oversimplified the CBO's data, leading to inaccuracies in reporting.

Conclusion

The claim that the CBO estimated a $3.3 trillion deficit increase over a decade is False. The CBO's actual estimates indicate a $2.4 trillion increase in deficits, which could rise to $2.8 trillion when accounting for macroeconomic effects, but not $3.3 trillion. The confusion arises from mixing deficit increases with total debt increases, which are separate figures.

Sources

1. Debt-Service Effects Derived From H.R. 1, the One Big ...
2. H.R. 1, One Big Beautiful Bill Act (Dynamic Estimate)
3. Debt-Service Effects Derived From H.R. 1, the One Big ...
4. An Update on CBO's Support of the Congress Throughout ...
5. Republican Senate tax bill would add $3.3 trillion to US ...
6. Senate Bill Would Add at Least $3.3 Trillion to Debt, ...