Fact Check: The bill will add more than 3 trillion to the national deficit.

Fact Check: "The bill will add more than 3 trillion to the national deficit."

What We Know

The claim that the bill will add more than $3 trillion to the national deficit is supported by multiple analyses and estimates. According to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), enacting H.R. 1, known as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, would increase the deficit by approximately $2.4 trillion over the period from 2025 to 2034, excluding macroeconomic effects and debt-service costs (CBO). When accounting for additional debt-service costs estimated at $551 billion, the cumulative effect on the deficit rises to about $3 trillion (CBO).

Furthermore, other sources corroborate this estimate. For instance, the Yale Budget Lab has indicated that the bill would add around $3 trillion over the next decade (NPR). Additionally, reports from major news outlets like the New York Times and the Washington Post also suggest that the Senate's version of the bill would add at least $3.3 trillion to the national debt (NY Times, Washington Post).

Analysis

The estimates provided by the CBO are critical in evaluating the claim. The CBO is a nonpartisan agency that provides objective analyses of budgetary and economic issues, making its assessments generally reliable. The agency's estimate of a $2.4 trillion increase in deficits, along with the additional $551 billion in debt-service costs, leads to a total of approximately $3 trillion, which aligns closely with the claims made in various reports (CBO).

However, it is essential to consider the context in which these estimates are made. The CBO's analysis excludes macroeconomic effects, which could potentially alter the deficit outcomes if the bill were to spur significant economic growth. The White House and supporters of the bill argue that the legislation will lead to economic growth that could offset some of the deficit increases (White House). Nonetheless, the estimates from independent sources like the Yale Budget Lab and analyses from news organizations suggest that the anticipated economic growth may not be sufficient to counterbalance the projected increases in the deficit.

Moreover, the reliability of the sources reporting on this claim varies. While the CBO is a credible source, some news outlets may have their own biases or perspectives that could influence their reporting. For example, the Washington Post and NPR have been critical of the bill's financial implications, framing it within a broader narrative about fiscal responsibility and the national debt (NPR, Washington Post).

Conclusion

The claim that "the bill will add more than $3 trillion to the national deficit" is True. The CBO's analysis indicates that the One Big Beautiful Bill Act would increase the deficit by approximately $2.4 trillion, and when including debt-service costs, the total impact on the deficit is around $3 trillion. This conclusion is supported by multiple independent analyses and aligns with estimates from various credible sources.