Fact Check: The AMOC: known to Americans as the Gulf Stream section of the current. The ocean is warming, and the whole system is starting to slow.

The AMOC: A Closer Look at Claims of a Slowdown

Introduction

The claim that "the AMOC: known to Americans as the Gulf Stream section of the current. The ocean is warming, and the whole system is starting to slow" suggests significant changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a crucial component of Earth's climate system. This claim raises concerns about the potential impacts of a slowdown in this ocean current, which is vital for regulating climate in the North Atlantic region.

What We Know

1. Understanding the AMOC: The AMOC is a large system of ocean currents, including the Gulf Stream, that plays a critical role in climate regulation. It transports warm water from the tropics to the North Atlantic, influencing weather patterns and temperatures across Europe and North America 23.

2. Current Research on Slowdown: Recent studies indicate that the AMOC is experiencing a slowdown, attributed to factors such as ocean warming and changes in salinity 13. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects that while a complete collapse of the AMOC is unlikely before 2100, a significant slowdown is anticipated 4.

3. Impacts of a Slowdown: A slowdown in the AMOC could lead to severe climate impacts, including changes in precipitation patterns, increased flooding, and altered marine ecosystems 59. Some sources suggest that the AMOC could collapse as early as 2025, although this claim is based on specific modeling scenarios and remains contentious 10.

4. Resilience of the System: Despite concerns about a slowdown, some researchers argue that the AMOC shows signs of resilience, suggesting that it may adapt to changing conditions rather than collapse entirely 1.

Analysis

The claim regarding the AMOC's slowdown is supported by a variety of scientific studies and expert opinions, but it is essential to critically evaluate the sources and their findings:

• Source Reliability:

  • The NOAA article 1 provides a comprehensive overview of the AMOC's changes based on decades of data, making it a credible source. However, it may have a positive bias toward the resilience of the system, which could downplay the severity of the slowdown.
  • The UGA Skidaway Institute article 2 features an interview with Dr. Nick Foukal, who discusses the implications of a potential AMOC slowdown. While interviews can provide valuable insights, they may also reflect the interviewee's personal views, which could introduce bias.
  • The Nature articles 56 are peer-reviewed studies that discuss the AMOC's role in climate systems. Peer-reviewed research generally holds high credibility, but the interpretation of data can vary among researchers, leading to differing conclusions about the AMOC's future.

• Conflicting Claims: The assertion that the AMOC could collapse as early as 2025 10 contrasts with more conservative estimates from the IPCC 4. This discrepancy highlights the uncertainty in climate modeling and the need for caution when interpreting predictions.

• Methodological Concerns: Many studies rely on climate models that incorporate various assumptions about future greenhouse gas emissions and other factors. The accuracy of these models can significantly influence predictions about the AMOC's behavior. More transparency in methodologies and assumptions would enhance the reliability of these claims.

Conclusion

Verdict: True

The claim that the AMOC is experiencing a slowdown is supported by a substantial body of scientific evidence, including recent studies and expert assessments. Key findings indicate that factors such as ocean warming and changes in salinity are contributing to this slowdown, which has significant implications for climate patterns in the North Atlantic region.

However, it is important to note that while a slowdown is likely, predictions about the timing and severity of potential impacts vary among researchers. Some studies suggest a possible collapse as early as 2025, while others, including the IPCC, project a more gradual change over the coming decades. This variability underscores the complexities of climate modeling and the inherent uncertainties involved.

Readers should approach this information with a critical mindset, recognizing that while the evidence supports the claim of a slowdown, ongoing research and evolving data may refine our understanding of the AMOC's future behavior.

Sources

1. Decades of Data on a Changing Atlantic Circulation. National Centers for Environmental Information. Link
2. The ocean's hidden engine, the AMOC: Will it collapse, and what happens ... Skidaway Institute of Oceanography. Link
3. Will the Gulf Stream really shut down? Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. Link
4. Slowdown of the Motion of the Ocean. NASA. Link
5. Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional ... Nature Communications. Link
6. Atlantic meridional overturning circulation increases flood risk along ... Nature Communications. Link
7. AMOC decline and recovery in a warmer climate | Scientific Reports - Nature. Link
8. Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation slowdown ... Nature. Link
9. Ocean Currents in the Atlantic Could Slow by Century's ... The New York Times. Link
10. Gulf Stream could collapse as early as 2025, study suggests. The Guardian. Link