Fact Check: The 2020 Myanmar election was fraudulent.

The Claim: "The 2020 Myanmar election was fraudulent."

Introduction

The assertion that the 2020 Myanmar election was fraudulent has gained traction, particularly following the military coup in February 2021. This claim has been supported by various statements from military officials and the Union Election Commission (UEC) of Myanmar, while independent observers and international organizations have largely rejected these allegations. This article will explore the available evidence surrounding the claim of electoral fraud in Myanmar's 2020 elections.

What We Know

Election Results: The 2020 general election in Myanmar was held on November 8, 2020, and resulted in a significant victory for the National League for Democracy (NLD), led by Aung San Suu Kyi. The NLD won 396 out of 476 available seats in the national parliament, while the military-affiliated Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) secured only 33 seats 2.
Military Claims of Fraud: Following the election, the military alleged widespread voter fraud, claiming that there were significant discrepancies in voter lists and illegal activities. The UEC, under military influence, announced that the election results were annulled, citing these alleged irregularities 3 4.
Independent Observations: Multiple independent observers, including the Asian Network for Free Elections (ANFREL), reported that there was no credible evidence of widespread fraud. They stated that the election was generally free and fair, reflecting the will of the people 2 6.
Election Commission's Rejection of Fraud Claims: The UEC, prior to the military takeover, had rejected the military's allegations of significant fraud, asserting that the election was conducted in accordance with the law 8.
Legal Proceedings Against Suu Kyi: In September 2022, Aung San Suu Kyi was convicted of electoral fraud, but the legitimacy of these charges has been widely questioned and viewed as politically motivated by many international observers 9.

Analysis

The claim of electoral fraud in the 2020 Myanmar elections is supported by statements from the military and the UEC, which are both entities with potential conflicts of interest. The military's narrative is inherently biased, as it seeks to justify its coup and consolidate power. The UEC's findings, which were released after the military takeover, may also reflect the military's influence rather than an impartial assessment of the election 3 4.

On the other hand, independent observers and organizations have consistently pointed out the lack of credible evidence supporting the military's fraud claims. The ANFREL and other watchdogs have emphasized that the election was conducted under challenging circumstances, including the COVID-19 pandemic, but still managed to reflect the electorate's preferences 2 6.

The methodology behind the military's fraud allegations has not been transparently presented, raising questions about the validity of their claims. The absence of specific, verifiable evidence makes it difficult to assess the credibility of the military's assertions. Additionally, the timing of these claims—immediately following a significant electoral defeat—suggests a possible motive to delegitimize the election results and justify the coup 7.

Conclusion

Verdict: Unverified

The claim that the 2020 Myanmar election was fraudulent remains unverified due to conflicting evidence and the lack of credible substantiation for the military's allegations. While the military and the UEC have asserted that fraud occurred, these claims are made by parties with vested interests in undermining the election results. Conversely, independent observers, including the ANFREL, have found no credible evidence of widespread fraud, asserting that the election reflected the will of the people.

It is important to note that the context surrounding these claims is complex. The military's narrative may be influenced by its desire to justify its actions following a significant electoral defeat. Furthermore, the legal proceedings against Aung San Suu Kyi, which have been widely criticized as politically motivated, add another layer of uncertainty to the legitimacy of the fraud claims.

The limitations of the available evidence highlight the need for caution in drawing definitive conclusions. The absence of transparent methodologies and verifiable data from the military's allegations raises significant doubts about their credibility. Readers are encouraged to critically evaluate the information presented and consider the broader context when assessing claims of electoral fraud in Myanmar.

Sources

Ministry of Information, Myanmar. "Findings on 2020 election fraud and unlawful acts." Link
BBC News. "Myanmar election: No evidence fraud in 2020 vote, observers say." Link
Ministry of Information, Myanmar. "2020 election fraud findings released online and via app." Link
Ministry of Information, Myanmar. "2020 election fraud findings released online and via app." Link
State Administration Council, Myanmar. "Details on 2020 Election Fraud on Website and App." Link
Associated Press. "Election watchdog says no credible proof of Myanmar fraud." Link
BBC News. "Myanmar coup: Does the army have evidence of voter fraud?" Link
Associated Press. "Myanmar election commission rejects military's fraud claims." Link
Reuters. "Myanmar's Suu Kyi gets jail with hard labour for election fraud." Link
Democratic Erosion. "Myanmar 2020 Election Fraud." Link