Fact Check: Tariffs do not raise prices for consumers.

Fact Check: "Tariffs do not raise prices for consumers."

What We Know

The claim that "tariffs do not raise prices for consumers" contradicts multiple analyses and studies on the economic impact of tariffs. According to a report from The Budget Lab, the implementation of tariffs in 2025 is projected to increase the price level by 2.3% in the short run, resulting in an average loss of purchasing power of $3,800 per household in 2024 dollars (source-1). This increase is attributed to tariffs affecting a wide range of consumer goods, particularly clothing and textiles, where prices could rise by 17% (source-1).

Further supporting this, a study by the Federal Reserve found that tariffs implemented in 2018-19 led to a statistically significant increase in consumer goods prices, with similar effects observed for tariffs enacted in 2025 (source-2). The analysis indicated that these tariffs had already contributed to a 0.3% increase in core goods prices by March 2025 (source-2).

Analysis

The evidence overwhelmingly supports the conclusion that tariffs do indeed raise consumer prices. The Budget Lab's findings are particularly significant, as they provide a comprehensive analysis of the economic effects of tariffs, showing a clear correlation between tariff implementation and increased consumer costs. The projected average household loss of $3,800 is substantial and indicates that the burden of tariffs is not borne solely by importers or foreign producers, but rather passed on to consumers (source-1).

Moreover, the Federal Reserve's research adds credibility to these findings, as it employs robust methodologies to assess the impact of tariffs on consumer prices. The study's conclusion that tariffs have led to a 0.3% increase in core goods prices supports the idea that tariffs are a direct factor in rising consumer costs (source-2).

While some may argue that tariffs could lead to increased domestic production and potentially lower prices in the long run, the immediate effects documented in these studies suggest that consumers are likely to face higher prices as a direct consequence of tariffs.

Conclusion

Verdict: False. The claim that "tariffs do not raise prices for consumers" is demonstrably incorrect. Evidence from multiple reputable sources indicates that tariffs lead to significant increases in consumer prices, with substantial impacts on household purchasing power. The economic analyses confirm that tariffs are passed on to consumers, resulting in higher costs for a variety of goods.