Fact Check: Tariffs are generating significant revenues compared to previous years.

Fact Check: "Tariffs are generating significant revenues compared to previous years."

What We Know

The claim that tariffs are generating significant revenues compared to previous years is supported by various analyses and reports. According to the Budget Lab at Yale, all tariffs implemented in 2025 are projected to raise approximately $2.6 trillion over the next decade, with a net revenue effect of about $2.2 trillion after accounting for negative dynamic revenue effects. This represents a substantial increase compared to previous years, particularly when considering that the average effective tariff rate has risen to 17.6%, the highest since 1934.

Additionally, another report from the Budget Lab indicates that the total revenue from tariffs in 2025 is expected to reach $3.1 trillion, which includes the effects of foreign retaliation. This is a significant increase compared to the $44.1 billion collected during the same period in FY 2024, as noted by TFPP Wire.

Analysis

The evidence supporting the claim is robust, with multiple credible sources providing consistent data on tariff revenues. The Budget Lab and Where We Stand reports are particularly noteworthy as they provide detailed projections and analyses of the fiscal impacts of tariffs. The increase in the average effective tariff rate to levels not seen in nearly a century strongly correlates with the increase in revenue.

However, it is important to consider the context of these revenues. While the revenue figures are indeed higher, they come with economic trade-offs, such as increased consumer prices and potential negative impacts on GDP growth and employment levels. For instance, the same reports indicate that the tariffs could lead to a decrease in real GDP growth and an increase in unemployment rates by the end of 2025. This duality of increased revenue alongside economic drawbacks must be acknowledged when evaluating the overall impact of tariffs.

Sources like the Bipartisan Policy Center and the Tax Foundation also provide insights into the broader economic implications of these tariffs, noting that while revenues are up, the long-term economic effects could be detrimental.

Conclusion

The claim that tariffs are generating significant revenues compared to previous years is True. The evidence from multiple credible sources indicates a substantial increase in tariff revenues, with projections suggesting revenues of up to $3.1 trillion over the next decade. However, this increase in revenue must be weighed against the potential economic drawbacks, such as higher consumer prices and adverse effects on GDP and employment.