Fact Check: "Starting new foreign wars can end a presidency, warns top MAGA pollster."
What We Know
The claim originates from Rich Baris, a prominent MAGA pollster, who stated that "starting new foreign wars never helps a presidency. But it sure as Hell can end one" in the context of President Donald Trump's potential involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict (Independent). Baris emphasized that the MAGA movement is not inherently anti-war but is critical of the motivations behind past military engagements, suggesting that a new war could jeopardize Republican control in Congress for "the next decade" (Independent, Newsweek).
Polling data indicates that a significant portion of Republican voters are concerned about U.S. involvement in foreign conflicts, with a Quinnipiac University survey revealing that 86% of GOP voters expressed worries about military engagement in the Middle East (Independent). This sentiment suggests a potential backlash against Trump if he were to escalate U.S. military involvement abroad.
Analysis
The reliability of Baris as a source can be assessed through his established role within the MAGA movement and his previous polling work. His warning reflects a broader concern among some Republican strategists that military entanglements could alienate the party's base, which has largely supported Trump due to his "America First" stance that includes skepticism towards foreign wars (Independent, Politico).
Moreover, Baris's assertion is supported by historical precedents where foreign military engagements have negatively impacted presidential approval ratings and political capital. For instance, President George W. Bush faced declining popularity as the Iraq War dragged on, which ultimately affected his party's performance in subsequent elections. This historical context lends weight to Baris's claim that new foreign wars can indeed end a presidency.
However, it is essential to note that not all Republicans share Baris's view. Some influential figures within the party advocate for a strong military response to threats, indicating a divide in opinion on foreign policy strategies (Independent, Politico). This division could complicate the political landscape for Trump if he were to pursue a more aggressive foreign policy.
Conclusion
The claim that "starting new foreign wars can end a presidency" is True. Rich Baris's warning reflects a legitimate concern within the MAGA movement and the Republican Party about the potential political repercussions of engaging in new military conflicts. Historical evidence supports the notion that foreign wars can significantly impact presidential approval and party control, reinforcing the validity of Baris's assertion.
Sources
- How would Trump and Harris handle the Russia-Ukraine ...
- Donald Trump approval tracker
- Top MAGA pollster warns Republicans will lose the majority for 'the ...
- Will Trump End America's Wars—or Start New Ones? - Foreign Policy
- Trump's most favorable pollster warns it could be "all over for MAGA"
- Top MAGA pollster warns Republicans will lose the ...
- MAGA warned Trump on Iran. Now he's in an impossible position.
- Trump says he wants 'an end' to the Iran-Israel conflict
